Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBIT | $2.7 billion | Not stated |
| Revenue | $49.5 billion | Sequentially higher |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $4.7 billion | Not stated |
| Ford Blue revenue | $27.1 billion | Down 3% |
| Ford Pro EBIT | $1.7 billion | Down 16% |
| Model e EBIT loss | $1.1 billion | Improved 25% year-over-year |
Guidance and outlook
- Full year adjusted EBIT is expected to be between $10.5 billion and $11 billion.
- Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be $6 billion to $7 billion.
- Capital expenditures are expected to be $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion.
- Ford Blue EBIT is expected to be about $5.5 billion.
- Ford Pro EBIT is expected to be about $7 billion.
- Model e losses are expected to be about $4 billion.
- Ford Credit EBT is expected to be about $2.8 billion.
How management sounded
Positive (+6 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management raised the low end of full-year EBIT guidance and highlighted strong performance in trucks and adjacencies, though they acknowledged ongoing cost pressures and macro uncertainty. Management sounded more upbeat than on 8% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
2027 Outlook and Offsets
Asked: JPMorgan asked how much of the 2027 offset stack is within management's control given recent inflation.
Answer: Management stated that revenue optimization, software and parts growth, and structural cost savings are within their control, supported by AI-driven demand sensing and tech modernization.
Model e / UEV Launch
Asked: Wolfe Research asked about the path to Model e profitability and the impact of UEV investments.
Answer: Management noted that Model e profitability will not be linear, with higher expenses in 2027 as plants ramp up, followed by a step-function improvement in the first half of 2028.
F-150 Inventory
Asked: UBS asked if the F-150 inventory recovery to target levels implies a significant absolute increase in stock.
Answer: Management clarified that they are targeting a 55 to 60-day supply range, which is historically lower than past levels, and they do not expect stocks to build to much higher levels.
Ford Energy Capacity
Asked: Evercore ISI asked about the criteria for expanding beyond the initial 20 gigawatt hours of capacity.
Answer: Management is currently focused on launching the initial 20 gigawatt hours but is evaluating scenarios for expansion based on returns on investment, customer demand, and tax treatment.
What to watch before the next call
- The launch of the Fathom vehicle in the fourth quarter of 2027.
- The ramp-up of the 20 gigawatt hours of battery capacity at the Kentucky plant by the end of 2027.
- The impact of potential Middle East escalation or U.S. economic downturn on industry demand.
- The progress of the 2027 portfolio refresh covering 70% of global volume.
