Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive gross margin (excluding credits) | 18.1% | Increased from 16.3% |
| Energy storage deployments | 13.7 gigawatt hour | Not stated |
| Energy gross margin | 33.1% | Increased from 20.4% |
| Free cash flow | $1.5 billion | Not stated |
| Cash and investment balance | Over $45 billion | Not stated |
Guidance and outlook
- CapEx guidance for the current year is revised to approximately $20 billion.
- The company expects to begin commissioning Terafab machinery in the first half of next year.
- Management expects to deliver Optimus to companies outside of Tesla around the end of next year.
How management sounded
Positive (+7 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management expressed high confidence in their autonomy and robotics roadmap, citing exponential growth in robotaxi miles and a clear path to production scaling for new products. Management sounded more upbeat than on 48% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
Robotaxi Scaling
Asked: How will the robotaxi fleet scale beyond Austin and what are the regulatory hurdles?
Answer: Management stated there is no fundamental reason to be limited to Austin, with plans to launch in Dallas next month and scale to other cities using the same software.
Optimus Production
Asked: What is the strategy for scaling Optimus production and training?
Answer: Tesla is building a production line in Fremont and constructing a factory in Austin while simultaneously refining the AI software and electromechanical design, specifically the hand.
FSD Competition
Asked: Could competitors developing similar L2 plus products deflate FSD pricing?
Answer: Management emphasized that solving full autonomy is an extremely difficult, long-tail problem that competitors cannot easily match.
Terafab Capital
Asked: What is the expected capital investment for the Terafab project?
Answer: The project will require tens of billions in capital equipment through early 2028, potentially exceeding $100 billion in the long term.
What to watch before the next call
- The release of an Optimus video demonstrating non-preprogrammed tasks expected in the next month or two.
- Progress on the integration of the AI5 chip into Optimus, targeted for approximately April of next year.
- Expansion of robotaxi operations to 24/7 availability and higher-speed roads by the end of the year.
