SpaceX (SPCX) Stock: Why It Rose 10% After Q3 Earnings

Quick answer

SpaceX rose 9.9% to $162.48 at 9:51am ET on Oct 21, 2026, from a $147.79 close, after it reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% from a year earlier and 13% above the $12.87 billion analysts expected. Diluted earnings were $0.35 a share against an estimate of $0.13, and the company guided March-quarter revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion. On the call Musk also said special committees at SpaceX and Tesla are studying a merger, though they have not agreed on terms. The stock jumped about 8% in after-hours trading on Oct 20, when the results came out, and held the gain. Its market value is about $2.1 trillion.

Our view: Bullish through December 8, 2026, when about 800 million more shares are due to unlock. The case against the stock is real: capital spending of $48.1 billion in nine months is almost four times operating cash flow of $13.1 billion, part of the $4.4 billion profit came from non-operating items, Morningstar's fair value is $70, and up to 1.3 billion shares become eligible for sale after this report. The evidence for the stock carries more weight into that date. Revenue beat by 13%, Connectivity alone earned $2.4 billion of operating income, the company holds $89.9 billion of cash and securities against $38.8 billion of debt and leases, and guidance for the March quarter is far above where analysts stood. A 10% gain still leaves the shares 28% below their $225.64 high and 27% below the $223 average target. We would move off Bullish if the stock closes below the $147.79 pre-report close, which would mean the gap has fully faded under share supply, if fourth-quarter capital spending runs above the $35 billion to $40 billion range without more revenue, or if the Tesla committees end talks or agree to terms that dilute SpaceX holders. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

SpaceX daily closing price from Sep 9 to Oct 21, 2026, with the Oct 6 high, the Oct 16 low and the Oct 21 jump marked

Key takeaways

SpaceX rose 9.9% to $162.48 at 9:51am ET on Oct 21, from a $147.79 close, after third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion beat the $12.87 billion analyst estimate by 13%.
Super Intelligence revenue grew 830% to $7.56 billion, Connectivity revenue grew 69% to $5.25 billion, and management guided March-quarter revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion, against a $20.2 billion estimate for the December quarter.
Net income of $4.4 billion was helped by $1.0 billion of other income and a $390 million tax benefit; operating income was $2.8 billion, and capital spending of $48.1 billion in nine months was almost four times operating cash flow of $13.1 billion.
Musk said special committees at SpaceX and Tesla are studying a merger but have not agreed on terms, and a share unlock of up to 1.3 billion shares follows the report.
Our view is Bullish through December 8, 2026, the date of the next large share unlock: the quarter and the guidance are stronger than a 10% gain prices in, and the shares are still 28% below their high.

Table of contents

Oct 21, 2026: SpaceX gaps up on its biggest quarter yet
The numbers
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Oct 21, 2026: SpaceX gaps up on its biggest quarter yet

The stock closed at $147.79 on Oct 20 and was $159.70 at 7:55pm that evening, up 8.1%, after the earnings release and call. It traded at $161.20 at 4am, ranged from $157.80 to $163.95 before the open, and was $160.52 at 9:25am. It opened at $160.56 and traded between $158.20 and $163.60 in the first 21 minutes, reaching $162.48 at 9:51am on 49.8 million shares.

What pushed it up:

Revenue far above estimates. Revenue was $14.575 billion, up from $7.81 billion in the second quarter and $5.58 billion a year earlier. Income from operations was $2.79 billion, against a loss of $273 million a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA was $8.8 billion.
Super Intelligence turned profitable. Revenue from the segment, which includes the Grok models and cloud computing, rose 830% to $7.56 billion, helped by new cloud services agreements, the acquisition of Cursor, which added $608 million, and more Grok use. Operating income was $431 million even after $1.2 billion of share-based pay tied to Cursor. Nameplate computing capacity reached 1.7 gigawatts.
Guidance and targets. Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen said total revenue should be $33 billion to $37 billion in the first quarter of 2027. Analysts' estimate for the December quarter stood at $20.2 billion. Musk said the compute build implies annual recurring revenue of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027, a goal rather than guidance.
Tesla. Musk said the special committees "have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction. And obviously, there's no guarantee that they will." Tesla rose 3.9% and reports its own results after the close today; see why Tesla stock fell on Oct 16 for what analysts expect.
Analysts. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens raised his fair value to $70 from $62, valuing launch and connectivity at $35 a share and cash at $7, and wrote that he sees no clear moat in AI yet. Barclays initiated at Overweight with a $254 target on Oct 9.

Space stocks rose with it. Compared with the Oct 20 close at about 9:55am, Intuitive Machines was up 7.2%, Rocket Lab up 4.2%, Tesla up 3.9%, Planet Labs up 3.4% and the Procure Space ETF up 3.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ gained 0.6%. SpaceX's 9.9% gain was larger than every one except Intuitive Machines, so most of the move belongs to the company, not the sector. For more of today's biggest stock moves, see our market index, and for a peer that fell on its own news, Rocket Lab.

At 9:51am, RSI(14) stood at 58, the shares sat 9% above their 50-day average and 5% above their 20-day average, volume had already reached 49.8 million shares against a 20-day average of 84.1 million, and the stock was 28% below its 52-week high of $225.64. SpaceX listed on June 12, so it has fewer than 200 sessions of history and no 200-day average.

The numbers

Segment	Q3 2026 revenue	Change from Q3 2025	Operating income
Super Intelligence	$7.56B	+830%	$431M
Connectivity	$5.25B	+69%	$2.37B
Space	$1.77B	+6%	-$7M
Total	$14.58B	+161%	$2.79B

Bar chart of SpaceX revenue: Q3 2025 $5.58 billion, Q2 2026 $7.81 billion, Q3 estimate $12.87 billion, Q3 2026 $14.58 billion, Q1 2027 guidance midpoint $35 billion

Connectivity is the steady part. Starlink had 13.6 million consumer subscribers, up 1.6 million in the quarter, at $69 a month, and enterprise and government revenue grew 91%. Space revenue was $1.77 billion, and a Starship flight delivered 26 Starlink V3 satellites, which SpaceX says adds about ten times the downlink capacity of a Falcon 9 launch.

The profit needs a closer look. Operating income was $2.79 billion, and net income of $4.40 billion also included $873 million of interest income, $1.03 billion of other income, a $390 million tax benefit, and $675 million of interest expense. The company reported nine-month net income of negative $413 million, so one strong quarter does not yet make a record. Our explainer on how to prepare for an earnings report covers separating operating results from other items.

The bull case

Growth that few companies this size can show. Revenue more than doubled in a year and rose 87% from the second quarter.
A strong balance sheet. Cash was $51.3 billion and marketable securities $38.6 billion. Total debt and finance leases were $38.8 billion, of which $12.9 billion is owed to related parties.
Guidance above the Street. The March-quarter range is far above analysts' December estimate, and the $223 average target is 37% above the price.
Pipeline. SpaceX signed three more NASA crew missions and 18 national security launches, and agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for Starlink Mobile, expected to close in the first half of 2027.

The risks

Spending far ahead of cash. Nine-month capital spending was $48.1 billion, of which $40.0 billion went to Super Intelligence, against operating cash flow of $13.1 billion. Fourth-quarter capital spending is guided to $35 billion to $40 billion. JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth asked how the 13 gigawatt compute goal is funded, and Johnsen pointed to operating cash flow, investment-grade debt markets and partnerships.
Share supply. The Motley Fool reported that up to 1.3 billion shares become eligible for sale after the third-quarter report, with about 800 million more on Dec 8. The float is 2.90 billion shares, so the release is large. Our guide to lockup expirations and share price explains how these usually trade.
Valuation. Price to book is 12.5, and Morningstar's $70 fair value is 57% below the price. Short sellers hold 6.2% of the float; see our explainer on short interest and squeeze risk.
A deal that may not happen. Musk said he cannot join the committee talks, and the merger terms are open. Analysts at Evercore and Morgan Stanley also pressed management on spectrum competition and chip supply, and Musk answered chip questions with "big error bars."

What comes next

Tesla's third-quarter results, after the close on Oct 21. Any word on the merger committees would move both stocks.
Share unlocks. Up to 328.4 million shares were reported eligible on Oct 24, then up to 1.3 billion after this report and about 800 million on Dec 8.
Fourth-quarter results, expected around Feb 25, 2027. Watch revenue against the $33 billion to $37 billion first-quarter guidance and capital spending against $35 billion to $40 billion.
The merger committees. An agreed price or an end to talks would reset the view. Our research archive tracks earlier event-driven situations.

Frequently asked questions

Why is SpaceX stock up today?

SpaceX rose about 10% on Oct 21 after its third-quarter report. Revenue was $14.58 billion, up 161%, against an analyst estimate of $12.87 billion, and management guided March-quarter revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion. Musk also said SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to study a merger.

How much revenue did SpaceX report in the third quarter?

SpaceX reported revenue of $14.575 billion for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2026, up from $5.576 billion a year earlier. Super Intelligence brought in $7.56 billion, Connectivity $5.25 billion and Space $1.77 billion. Net income was $4.4 billion, or $0.35 per diluted share.

Is SpaceX going to merge with Tesla?

Not yet. On the Oct 20 call Musk said special committees at both companies have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction and that there is no guarantee they will. He said he cannot take part in the committee talks because he is a conflicted party.

What is the SpaceX price target?

The average analyst target is $223.14, with a range from $75 to $450, about 37% above the Oct 21 price. Barclays rates the stock Overweight with a $254 target, while Morningstar raised its fair value estimate to $70 from $62 after the report.

When can SpaceX shareholders sell their shares?

SpaceX staged its IPO lockup release in tranches. The Motley Fool reported in September that up to 1.3 billion shares become eligible after the third-quarter report and about 800 million more on Dec 8, 2026. Musk's own shares stay locked until about June 2027.

How much is SpaceX spending on capital expenditures?

SpaceX spent $19.6 billion on capital expenditures in the third quarter and $48.1 billion in nine months, of which $40.0 billion went to Super Intelligence. Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen said fourth-quarter capital spending should be $35 billion to $40 billion.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published October 21, 2026 · 6 min read · Event-Driven Investing