Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Prediction markets annualized run rate revenue | $200 million | Not stated |
| Overall crypto spot trading volume | Down 10% | Quarter-over-quarter |
| Total USDC circulation held on platform | 30% | Not stated |
| Tokenized equity trading volume on Base | $3 billion | Since launch |
| Services revenue as percentage of total net revenues | 49% | Not stated |
Guidance and outlook
- No specific financial guidance was provided during the call.
How management sounded
Positive (+6 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management highlighted successful revenue diversification into new products like prediction markets and AI agents while noting that regulatory headwinds are easing. Management sounded more upbeat than on 8% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
Bitcoin and Macro
Asked: William Blair analyst Andrew Jeffrey asked about the evolving investment case for Bitcoin and how it trades as a risk asset.
Answer: Brian Armstrong noted that Bitcoin is increasingly used as collateral to improve liquidity and financing, while Alesia Haas highlighted significant ETF inflows and stabilizing prices.
Prediction Markets
Asked: Analysts asked how prediction markets impacted consumer transaction revenue and if they cannibalized spot trading.
Answer: Alesia Haas explained that prediction markets are incremental and helped offset the 10% decline in spot trading volume to keep revenue flat.
AI Agents
Asked: Artemis analyst John Ma asked about the potential for Coinbase agents and the everything exchange strategy.
Answer: Brian Armstrong stated that agentic trading volume is growing 20% week over week and emphasized the need for AI agents to have their own financial infrastructure.
Security and Quantum
Asked: Arc analyst Lorenzo Valenti asked about the security risks AI poses to cryptography and the company's post-quantum roadmap.
Answer: Brian Armstrong noted that while AI does not pose an immediate threat to current cryptography, the company is upgrading its custody to be post-quantum ready.
What to watch before the next call
- The development of the agentic economy and the growth of AI-enabled trading volumes.
- The relaunch of the Coinbase Pro brand and integration of Deribit products.
- The evolution of the regulatory environment in the United States following recent legislative changes.
