Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 7% | Year-over-year |
| Operating margin expansion | 60 basis points | Year-over-year |
| Ratings billed issuance growth | 8% | Year-over-year |
| Indices revenue growth | 20% | Year-over-year |
| Adjusted EPS guidance | $17.70 to $17.95 | Raised |
Guidance and outlook
- Full-year organic constant currency growth raised to a range of 7.5% to 8.5%.
- Total operating margin expansion expected in the range of 75 to 100 basis points.
- Adjusted EPS guidance raised to a range of $17.70 to $17.95.
- Ratings organic constant currency revenue growth expected to be 6.5% to 8%.
- Indices organic constant currency growth expected in the range of 17% to 18.5%.
- Market Intelligence organic constant currency growth expected to be 5.5% to 7%.
- Fourth quarter adjusted free cash flow expected to be approximately $1.6 billion.
How management sounded
Positive (+6 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management raised full-year guidance for organic growth and EPS while highlighting strong execution and accelerating subscription growth across key divisions. Management sounded more upbeat than on 8% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
Strategic Review Timing
Asked: Why did the company decide to launch the strategic review for Capital IQ now?
Answer: Management explained it is about long-term positioning and focusing investments on markets where S&P Global is strongest, noting the business is currently performing well.
Strategic Review Perimeter
Asked: What is the scope of the businesses under review?
Answer: Management clarified the perimeter includes Capital IQ and associated data businesses like Kensho, but excludes Enterprise Solutions, RatingsDirect, and RatingsExpress.
Ratings Outlook
Asked: What is the outlook for 2027 issuance given recent research?
Answer: Management noted it is too early for 2027 specifics but highlighted strong secular tailwinds and refinancing needs as positive factors.
AI Revenue Contribution
Asked: What was the revenue contribution from AI products?
Answer: Management stated AI products contributed approximately 50 basis points of growth to both the Energy and Market Intelligence divisions.
What to watch before the next call
- Updates on the strategic review of Capital IQ and associated data businesses, with the next meaningful update expected in February.
- The impact of the bond offering on interest expenses and the progress of the $7 billion share repurchase program.
- The evolution of AI-related revenue and whether growth rates for AI and non-AI customers will converge as expected.
