Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.02 | Up 18% year-over-year |
| Net revenues | $2.8 billion | Up 15% year-over-year |
| Adjusted operating income | $1.7 billion | Up 19% |
| Exchange recurring revenues | $422 million | Up 8% |
| Fixed income and data services revenues | $674 million | Up 9% year-over-year |
Guidance and outlook
- For the fourth quarter, we expect adjusted operating expenses to be in the range of $1.82 billion to $1.92 billion.
- We expect fourth quarter adjusted nonoperating expense to be between $175 million and $185 million.
- We expect the adjusted tax rate to be towards the high end of our 24% to 26% range.
- We now expect full year CapEx of approximately $1.5 billion.
- We now expect full year exchange recurring revenue growth of approximately 9%.
- We now expect full year FIDs recurring revenue growth of approximately 8%.
How management sounded
Positive (+6 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management highlighted record earnings and revenue growth, raised full-year exchange recurring revenue guidance, and emphasized the successful integration of strategic acquisitions. Management sounded more upbeat than on 8% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
Trade XYZ investment
Asked: Patrick Moley (Piper Sandler) asked about the strategic logic and evolution of real-world asset perpetuals.
Answer: Jeff Sprecher explained that these markets are complementary to futures, offering short-term exposure, and the company aims to bring them into a U.S. regulated framework.
Fixed Income Data (FID) growth
Asked: Alex Blostein (Goldman Sachs) asked about the durability of above-trend growth in FID.
Answer: Chris Edmonds noted that clients are consolidating vendors, seeking scale and content, which ICE is well-positioned to provide.
Hyperscalers and data centers
Asked: Chris Allen (KBW) asked about the impact of hyperscalers on energy trading and compute futures.
Answer: Ben Jackson stated that data centers are driving demand for power and gas hedging, and ICE is launching compute futures to capture this activity.
Mortgage technology outlook
Asked: Craig Siegenthaler (Bank of America) asked if revenue growth will pick up next year despite higher rates.
Answer: Warren Gardiner noted that while the rate environment is challenging, the company continues to invest in initiatives that will position the business for growth when the market returns.
Market Access deal feedback
Asked: Dan Fannon (Jefferies) asked about dealer feedback and the competitive environment.
Answer: Chris Edmonds reported positive client feedback, emphasizing the value of scale and the new ecosystem ICE is building.
What to watch before the next call
- Regulatory approval progress for the Market Access acquisition and the new Trade XYZ retail perpetual markets.
- The impact of interest rate volatility on trading volumes and fixed income data demand.
- The launch and adoption of new compute futures products.
