Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted earnings | $3.27 per share | Not stated |
| Cash from operations | $7.2 billion | Not stated |
| Free cash flow | $4 billion | Not stated |
| Production | 2,302,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day | Not stated |
| Shareholder distributions | $3.4 billion | Not stated |
Guidance and outlook
- For the fourth quarter, the company expects production to average between 2.32 billion and 2.360 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
- Full year production is expected to be around 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
- The company expects to return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders this year.
- Capital spending for 2027 is anticipated to be modestly lower year-on-year.
How management sounded
Positive (+7 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management raised the dividend by 11%, exceeded earnings expectations, and provided a clear, long-term framework for growth and shareholder returns. Management sounded more upbeat than on 48% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
Long-term growth strategy
Asked: How does the company view growth beyond the 2029 free cash flow inflection?
Answer: Management emphasized that growth continues beyond 2029 at a structurally lower reinvestment rate, supported by deep inventory in the Lower 48 and international assets.
Shareholder returns
Asked: How will the mix of dividends and buybacks evolve?
Answer: Management intends to continue growing the dividend at a top-quartile S&P 500 rate while using buybacks to flex with cash flow, maintaining a 45% return of capital framework.
Inflation and costs
Asked: How is the company managing inflation?
Answer: Management noted that while some consumables face double-digit inflation, these costs are being offset by operational efficiencies and structural cost reductions.
Willow project
Asked: What is the status of the Willow project?
Answer: The project is over halfway complete, with infrastructure work progressing and process module fabrication over 75% complete, keeping the early 2029 startup on track.
What to watch before the next call
- The potential outcome of the unsolicited offer for the Norway assets.
- The ramp-up of LNG volumes from Qatar and other projects in 2027.
- The progress of the Willow project, specifically the upcoming winter construction season and drilling operations.
