Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 Adjusted EBITDA | $2.4 billion | Record |
| Generation Adjusted EBITDA | $2.28 billion | Up from $1.544 billion in Q3 2025 |
| Retail Adjusted EBITDA | $98 million | Not stated |
| Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Ratio | 2.8x | Not stated |
Guidance and outlook
- 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion.
- 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow before growth: $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion.
- 2027 Adjusted EBITDA: $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion.
- 2027 Adjusted Free Cash Flow before growth: $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion.
How management sounded
Positive (+7 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management delivered record results, raised the midpoint of guidance, and expressed strong conviction in their long-term growth strategy despite political noise. Management sounded more upbeat than on 48% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
2030 Free Cash Flow Outlook
Asked: Analysts asked about the assumptions behind the $24 per share free cash flow outlook for 2030 and the role of market pricing versus buybacks.
Answer: Management clarified that the outlook reflects current market curves without assuming price recoveries and relies on a simplifying assumption of allocating excess cash to share repurchases.
Election Impact on Texas Data Centers
Asked: Analysts questioned if election results or potential policy changes would impact data center development in Texas.
Answer: Management stated that the election results do not change their fundamental outlook and that they continue to see strong customer interest in data center projects.
PJM and ERCOT Contracting
Asked: Analysts inquired about the status of bilateral contracting efforts in PJM and ERCOT.
Answer: Management noted that they are actively engaged in bilateral discussions and believe the elimination of certain regulatory proposals provides more clarity for customers.
Capital Allocation
Asked: Analysts asked if the company would prioritize share buybacks over growth projects given recent stock price volatility.
Answer: Management explained they weigh all opportunities against share repurchases but remain committed to their growth pipeline and long-term capital allocation strategy.
What to watch before the next call
- The mid-December timeline for the completion of the ERCOT audit process and potential lifting of permit holds.
- Progress on bilateral contract negotiations in PJM and ERCOT.
- Integration of the Cogentrix assets and realization of expected synergies.
