Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings | $9.9 billion | Not stated |
| Adjusted Earnings | $10.4 billion | $1.6 billion lower versus last quarter |
| Cash flow from operations (excluding working capital) | $16.6 billion | Not stated |
| Organic CapEx | $3.9 billion | Not stated |
| Natural gas production | more than 9 billion cubic feet per day | new quarterly record |
Guidance and outlook
- We expect fourth quarter CapEx to increase while still finishing the year at the low end of our annual CapEx guidance.
- We will move from 3 rigs to 2 rigs at year-end in the Bakken while sustaining 180,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent production.
- We are on track with our 2030 plan that we guided in the Investor Day.
How management sounded
Positive (+6 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management highlighted record production in multiple segments, successful AI implementation, and a strong balance sheet while maintaining disciplined capital allocation. Management sounded more upbeat than on 8% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
Venezuela
Asked: How are you managing aboveground risk and what is the cost structure?
Answer: Management noted strong contract terms and stability clauses, and emphasized the project is self-funding with total costs under $20 per barrel.
TCO Concession
Asked: What is the status of the TCO concession extension?
Answer: Management reported good progress with technical and commercial teams and expects a win-win agreement that is competitive for the Republic and the partners.
Bakken
Asked: Is the Bakken asset core and what is the financial impact of the midstream contract restructuring?
Answer: Management views it as core, noting a 50% reduction in tariffs, and expects the transaction to increase corporate ROCE by 0.5% and deconsolidate $3.7 billion of debt.
AI
Asked: How is AI being used across the enterprise and in exploration?
Answer: Management stated AI has captured more than $100 million in value year-to-date and is being used to optimize production, design wells, and high-grade exploration prospects.
What to watch before the next call
- The closing of the Bakken midstream transaction at the end of the fourth quarter.
- Updates on the TCO concession extension negotiations.
- The 2027 capital program details to be provided in December.
