Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Net Revenues | $18.7 billion | Not stated |
| Earnings per share | $17.01 | Not stated |
| Advisory revenues | $1.7 billion | up 18% year-over-year |
| Equities net revenues | $6.4 billion | up 72% year-over-year |
| Assets under supervision | $4.1 trillion | Record |
Guidance and outlook
- We expect incentive fees to remain elevated in the fourth quarter.
- For the full year, we continue to expect an effective tax rate of approximately 20%.
- We now expect full year fundraising of roughly $150 billion.
How management sounded
Positive (+7 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management highlighted record year-to-date revenues and a robust backlog while maintaining a disciplined approach to risk and capital allocation. Management sounded more upbeat than on 48% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
AI Infrastructure Financing
Asked: Analysts asked if financing is a bottleneck for the AI capital expenditure cycle.
Answer: Management stated that while demand for compute exceeds supply, they remain disciplined about underwriting risks and capital commitments, noting that the long-term trajectory of AI investment remains significant.
Succession Planning
Asked: Analysts asked about recent media reports regarding leadership succession.
Answer: David Solomon stated there is no succession transition or timeline underway and that the board is focused on the current strategy.
Trading and Market Environment
Asked: Analysts asked if the current market environment is peaking.
Answer: Management noted that capital markets activity remains in the top quartile and that the firm's backlog remains robust despite some macro complexity.
Capital Management
Asked: Analysts asked about capital management priorities and share buybacks.
Answer: Management indicated a consistent approach of deploying capital into the client franchise first, followed by dividend growth and share repurchases, while maintaining appropriate capital buffers.
What to watch before the next call
- The impact of potential interest rate volatility on the pace of data center and AI infrastructure build-outs.
- The evolution of regulatory capital requirements, specifically liquidity regulation reform.
- The timing of sponsor-led M&A activity, which has been below historical averages.
