Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.5 billion | Not stated |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.52 | Exceeded guidance of $0.38 |
| DCAI Revenue | $7.3 billion | Up 17% sequentially |
| CCPG Revenue | $8.1 billion | Down 9% sequentially |
| Intel Foundry Revenue | $6.7 billion | Up 16% sequentially |
Guidance and outlook
- Q4 revenue: $15 billion to $16 billion
- Q4 non-GAAP gross margin: 38%
- Q4 non-GAAP EPS: $0.25
- 2026 PC unit TAM: decline of approximately 12%
- 2027 PC unit TAM: decline of roughly 10%
How management sounded
Balanced (+3 on our -10 to +10 scale). While Q3 results exceeded expectations, management highlighted significant near-term challenges including a PC market correction and a factory shutdown in Israel. Management sounded more upbeat than on 1% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
PC Market Correction
Asked: Analysts asked about the PC market correction and when it might improve.
Answer: Management expects the inventory correction to persist through Q4 and Q1, with potential improvement in the second half of 2027.
Israel Factory Shutdown
Asked: Analysts asked about the impact of the Israel factory shutdown.
Answer: Management expects a $300 million revenue impact in Q4 and a similar impact in Q1, with most wafer scrapping occurring in Q4.
CapEx and Cash Flow
Asked: Analysts asked if Intel would generate free cash flow next year given high CapEx.
Answer: Management stated 2027 is an investment year and does not expect positive free cash flow as they ramp 18A and prepare 14A.
Server Market Share
Asked: Analysts asked about server market share and competition.
Answer: Management believes market share will be a function of supply and expects to be competitive with new product roadmaps.
What to watch before the next call
- Normalization of memory prices and availability to signal a PC market recovery.
- Execution of Intel 3 and 18A yield improvements and capacity ramps in Oregon and Arizona.
- Progress on external foundry customer engagements and potential announcements in the next two quarters.
