Intel (INTC) Stock: Why It Fell 29% After Earnings

Quick answer

Intel traded at $65.47 at 9:42am ET on Oct 30, 2026, down 28.9% from a $92.07 close, because its fourth-quarter outlook missed badly even though the third quarter beat. After the close on Oct 29 it guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, against a $17.1 billion consensus, and non-GAAP earnings to $0.25 a share, against about $0.43. It also warned that the PC slowdown will last at least through the first half of 2027. The stock opened at $68.35, touched $64.78 and had traded 79.9 million shares by 9:42am. The loss is about $26.60 a share, or roughly $140 billion of market value, leaving Intel worth $346 billion.

Our view: Bearish through January 28, 2027, when fourth-quarter results are expected. The case for the stock: the data center business is booming, with revenue up 78% to $7.3 billion, management says it cannot make enough Xeon chips, Foundry revenue rose 58%, the PC problem comes from memory prices and not from Intel losing share, Intel holds $21.8 billion of cash and $32.2 billion of short-term investments, the $300 million Israel fab outage in the fourth quarter is a one-time hit, and the shares already trade 35% below their 50-day average with RSI at 25. The case against carries more weight into that report. The guide cuts earnings per share by about 42% against the consensus, gross margin falls from 44.1% to about 38%, the PC decline runs into 2027, and Intel does not expect positive free cash flow in 2027 as capital spending rises. Foundry still lost $1.85 billion in the quarter, and the shares are still about 32 times the $2.06 average 2027 earnings estimate, a number set before this guide and likely to fall. We would move off Bearish if fourth-quarter revenue lands at or above the $16.0 billion top of the range, if Intel names an outside customer for its 14A process or commits to a supply fix for Xeon, or if analysts' 2027 earnings estimates stop falling after the January report. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

Intel daily closing price from Sep 14 to Oct 30, 2026, with the six-week high, the Oct 29 report and the Oct 30 drop marked

Key takeaways

Intel traded at $65.47 at 9:42am ET on Oct 30, 2026, down 28.9% from a $92.07 close, after it guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion against a $17.1 billion consensus.
Third-quarter results beat: revenue was $16.5 billion, up 21%, and non-GAAP earnings were $0.52 a share against about $0.41 expected. Fourth-quarter non-GAAP earnings are guided to $0.25, against about $0.43.
The split inside the business is the story: Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion and Foundry rose 58% to $6.7 billion, while PC chip revenue fell 5% to $8.1 billion and is expected to fall by a mid-20% rate in the fourth quarter.
Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said the PC slowdown should last "at least through the first half of next year", and the company does not expect positive free cash flow in 2027.
The stock is now 54% below its $142.35 52-week high, and PC-exposed peers Dell, HP and AMD fell 8% to 10% with it.

Table of contents

Oct 30, 2026: a 29% gap down on the guide
The numbers behind the drop
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Oct 30, 2026: a 29% gap down on the guide

Intel reported after the close on Oct 29. In premarket trading it was $68.85, down 25%, 24/7 Wall St. reported, and Invezz put the premarket loss at about 26%. It opened at $68.35, traded as low as $64.78 and as high as $68.77, and was $65.47 at 9:42am. After the drop, RSI(14) stood at 25, the shares sat 35% below their 50-day average and 25% below their 200-day average, volume had already reached 0.8 times its 20-day average, and the shares were 54% below their 52-week high of $142.35.

What happened:

The guide missed on every line. Revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion compares with $17.1 billion expected, FactSet data cited by Invezz showed. Non-GAAP gross margin of about 38.0% compares with 44.1% in the third quarter. Non-GAAP earnings of $0.25 compare with about $0.43.
PCs are the problem. Client Computing and Physical AI revenue fell 5% to $8.1 billion, and Intel expects PC chip revenue to fall at a mid-20% rate in the fourth quarter, Invezz reported. 24/7 Wall St. reported that Intel projects the PC market to shrink 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027. Intel's release lists "industry-wide substrate and memory shortages" among its supply risks.
An Israel fab outage adds to it. An accident in early October forced an extended shutdown at a factory in Israel, which Intel expects to cut about $300 million from fourth-quarter revenue, 24/7 Wall St. reported. Invezz put the loss at about $600 million over two quarters.
Cash flow turns negative. Management does not expect positive free cash flow in 2027, 24/7 Wall St. reported. In the third quarter Intel generated $5.1 billion of operating cash flow but spent $4.2 billion on gross capital expenditures.

Peers fell with it. At 9:42am HP was down 10.4%, Arm 9.9%, AMD 9.5% and Dell 8.5%, against 3.4% for Nvidia, which has little PC exposure. The semiconductor fund SOXX was down 6.7% and the Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ 2.7%. Intel fell far more than any of them, which fits a company-specific guide and not a sector selloff.

The numbers behind the drop

The third quarter was a good one. Revenue was $16.5 billion, up 21% from $13.7 billion a year earlier, non-GAAP gross margin was 44.1%, up 4.1 points, and non-GAAP earnings were $0.52 a share, against about $0.41 expected. The quarter included a $120 million gain on escrowed shares in GAAP results, and the release shows GAAP earnings of $0.60.

Segment	Q3 2026 revenue	Change from a year earlier	Operating income
Client Computing and Physical AI	$8.1B	Down 5%	$2,285M
Data Center and AI	$7.3B	Up 78%	$3,039M
Intel Foundry	$6.7B	Up 58%	$(1,853)M

CEO Lip-Bu Tan said demand for Intel's CPUs is still strong despite near-term headwinds across the PC industry, and that the "immediate priority is to unlock additional supply to meet extraordinary demand for our Xeon family." Zinsner said Intel will keep "making disciplined investments in capacity and working capital to increase supply." The market heard the other half of the release: a quarter that beat, followed by a guide that takes revenue down about 6% at the midpoint and earnings down by half. For a primer on why a guide often outweighs the quarter, see why outlooks move stocks, and for the release itself see how to read an earnings release.

Intel third-quarter revenue of $16.5 billion, fourth-quarter consensus of $17.1 billion and the $15.5 billion midpoint of the fourth-quarter guide

The bull case

The bulls argue the market is punishing the wrong problem. Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis said the reset is less concerning because it came from weak PCs and not data center or AI, though he added it is "tough to underwrite the longer-term story even with Foundry/packaging customer announcements," Invezz reported. World Trade Securities kept an Overweight rating and a $130 target, and analyst Nicholas Mugalli said the market is "punishing the right problem with the wrong time horizon." Intel's 18A costs have fallen about 40% since the first quarter, Seeking Alpha reported, and weaker PC demand could free factory capacity for server chips. The average analyst target was $114.57 at 9:45am, 75% above the share price, with a range of $70 to $200. Estimates move after a guide like this, which is why estimate revisions matter more than the target on the day.

The risks

The risks are the ones the guide names. Zinsner said "we see the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year." Memory prices are rising, which makes PCs dearer and trims budgets, and Intel cannot fix that. BofA moved to Neutral from Buy and cut its target to $100 from $145, saying Intel has not made enough progress winning outside foundry customers and that its products are not yet technically competitive with AMD and ARM-based rivals. Roth Capital also moved to Neutral from Buy, with a $70 target. Morgan Stanley expects Intel to lose share to rivals with lower capital spending. Intel also completed a $23 billion public equity offering, so the share count is already higher, and dilution is part of the arithmetic on any earnings recovery. Negative free cash flow in 2027 means the company relies on its cash pile and outside funding to carry Foundry, a point we cover in free cash flow yield.

What comes next

Intel has not confirmed a date for fourth-quarter results; an earnings calendar lists January 28, 2027. Until then, three things matter: whether PC revenue lands near the mid-20% decline, whether gross margin holds near 38%, and whether Intel can add Xeon supply fast enough to turn data center demand into revenue. Our other work on the setup is in how to prepare for an earnings catalyst, the list of today's biggest stock moves, and the research archive.

Frequently asked questions

Why did Intel stock fall today?

Intel reported third-quarter results after the close on Oct 29 that beat estimates, then guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, against a $17.1 billion consensus, and non-GAAP earnings to $0.25 a share, against about $0.43. It traded at $65.47 at 9:42am ET on Oct 30, down 28.9%.

Did Intel beat earnings in the third quarter?

Yes. Revenue of $16.5 billion was in line with the $16.5 billion consensus and up 21% from a year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings of $0.52 a share beat the roughly $0.40 to $0.41 estimate, and non-GAAP gross margin was 44.1%.

What is Intel's fourth-quarter guidance?

Intel guided revenue to $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of about 38.0% and non-GAAP earnings of $0.25 a share. Third-quarter non-GAAP gross margin was 44.1%, so the guide implies a drop of about six points.

What is hurting Intel's PC business?

Intel said industry-wide memory and substrate shortages are raising PC prices and tightening budgets. Client Computing and Physical AI revenue fell 5% to $8.1 billion in the third quarter, and Intel expects PC chip revenue to fall at a mid-20% rate in the fourth quarter, Invezz reported.

Which analysts cut Intel after earnings?

Invezz reported that BofA Securities moved Intel to Neutral from Buy and cut its target to $100 from $145, and Roth Capital moved it to Neutral from Buy and cut its target to $70 from $120. Morgan Stanley said the stock remains unattractive after the drop. World Trade Securities kept an Overweight with a $130 target.

Which stocks fell with Intel?

At 9:42am ET HP was down 10.4%, Arm 9.9%, AMD 9.5%, Dell 8.5%, Qualcomm 6.5% and Micron 4.5%, against 3.4% for Nvidia, 6.7% for the semiconductor fund SOXX and 2.7% for the Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ.

When does Intel report next?

Intel has not confirmed a date for fourth-quarter results. An earnings calendar lists Jan 28, 2027.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published October 30, 2026 · 6 min read · Event-Driven Investing