Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $15.3 billion | Not stated |
| Total Revenue | $50.9 billion | up 8% year-on-year |
| Expenses | $27.3 billion | up 12% year-on-year |
| CCB Revenue | $21.2 billion | up 9% year-on-year |
| CIB Revenue | $22.7 billion | up 14% year-on-year |
| AWM Revenue | $6.9 billion | up 14% year-on-year |
Guidance and outlook
- Expect fourth quarter NII ex Markets to be approximately $25.5 billion.
- Expect fourth quarter total NII to be about $28 billion.
- Expect fourth quarter expenses to be about $27.5 billion.
- Expect card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.2%.
- Central case for 2027 NII ex Markets is approximately $107 billion.
How management sounded
Positive (+6 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management reported record-level performance across franchises but emphasized significant uncertainty regarding the global macro environment and future rate paths. Management sounded more upbeat than on 8% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
AI and Agentic Disruption
Asked: How does management view the competitive risk from agentic AI?
Answer: Management views it as an intersection of yield-seeking flows and fintech competition, noting they are building defensive tools to protect customers from rogue agents.
2027 NII Outlook
Asked: What are the assumptions for the $107 billion NII target?
Answer: The target assumes current forward curve rate hikes and continued balance sheet growth, though management noted high uncertainty regarding the macro environment.
Capital Management
Asked: Why is the share buyback lower this quarter?
Answer: Management prefers organic growth investments over buybacks at current stock levels, citing strong internal deployment opportunities.
Consumer Health
Asked: Can the consumer handle higher interest rates?
Answer: The consumer remains healthy due to the labor market, but aggressive, extended rate cycles could eventually lead to higher unemployment and weaker credit results.
What to watch before the next call
- Impact of potential higher interest rates on consumer deposit migration and credit quality.
- Finalization of Basel III Endgame and G-SIB capital requirements.
- Evolution of AI agentic tools and potential regulatory responses.
