Q4 FY2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| China sales exposure | Single-digit range | Reducing over the last couple of years |
| Committed shipments for fiscal 2027 | More than 75% | Not stated |
| Server unit growth | High teens | Not stated |
Guidance and outlook
- First quarter guidance includes single-digit sequential bit growth.
- First quarter guidance includes double-digit cost growth for both DRAM and NAND.
- R&D spending is expected to be over $1 billion in 2027.
How management sounded
Positive (+7 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management expressed high confidence in demand through 2028, citing strong AI-driven server demand and long-term supply agreements. Management sounded more upbeat than on 48% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
2028 Outlook
Asked: Why does Micron see 2028 as tighter than 2027?
Answer: Management cites stronger demand drivers like agentic AI and structural supply constraints, including diminishing returns from technology transitions.
HBM Market
Asked: What is the outlook for HBM TAM and market share?
Answer: Micron is not updating the TAM outlook but expects HBM shipments to grow faster than conventional DRAM and market share to remain around the broader DRAM share.
China Competition
Asked: How does Micron view the competitive gap with China?
Answer: Micron believes its technology leadership is at least two nodes ahead of China competition and is focused on maintaining that differentiation.
CapEx Strategy
Asked: Why is construction CapEx increasing?
Answer: The increase is primarily to accelerate clean room space availability for 2028 and beyond, as clean room space is the principal constraint in the industry.
What to watch before the next call
- The ramp of the 1-gamma DRAM node in the second half of next year.
- The progress of HBM 4E co-design with NVIDIA.
- The impact of new clean room capacity coming online in late 2028.
