Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Postpaid net account additions | 274,000 | Not stated |
| Postpaid service revenue growth | 9% | Year-over-year |
| Core adjusted EBITDA growth | 11% | Year-over-year |
| Adjusted free cash flow margin | 26% | Not stated |
| Postpaid ARPA growth | 4% | Year-over-year |
Guidance and outlook
- We now expect approximately 1 million account net additions for the year.
- We now expect full year service revenues of approximately $76.8 billion.
- Core adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be between $37.35 billion and $37.45 billion for the full year.
- Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion.
- We now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.7 billion and $18.8 billion.
How management sounded
Positive (+6 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management raised full-year guidance for core adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow while highlighting industry-leading net additions and strong postpaid ARPA growth. Management sounded more upbeat than on 8% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
FWA Momentum
Asked: Craig Moffett asked about FWA deceleration trends seen at competitors.
Answer: Management stated they are seeing strong momentum and are tracking ahead of their goal to reach 15 million customers by 2030, with ARPU growth and category-leading NPS.
Physical AI and Kinetic Edge
Asked: Kutgun Maral asked about monetization and infrastructure funding for Physical AI.
Answer: Management explained they are selling solutions that reduce device costs by offloading compute, and they are in the early stages of building out infrastructure with AWS.
Competitive Landscape and Buybacks
Asked: Sean Diffley asked about the competitive environment and capital allocation.
Answer: Management noted they focus on balancing volume and value, and for capital allocation, they plan to devote more of their envelope to upcoming spectrum auctions in 2027 and 2028.
Q4 Outlook and Churn
Asked: John Hodulik asked about the Q4 EBITDA growth slowdown and churn trends.
Answer: Management explained Q4 seasonality and M&A timing impacts, noting that postpaid service revenue growth is expected to be 7% year-over-year in Q4.
What to watch before the next call
- The impact of the staggered iPhone launch and device price increases on Q4 performance.
- The outcome of upcoming spectrum auctions in 2027 and 2028.
- The evolution of Physical AI use cases and the Kinetic Edge build-out.
