Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | $1.87 | Up 30% year-over-year |
| Revenue | Growth of 2% | Versus prior year |
| Average loans | Up 11% | Versus a year ago |
| Average deposits | Up 11% | Versus a year ago |
| Efficiency ratio | 63% | Improved 2 percentage points year-over-year |
| Net loan charge-off ratio | 38 basis points | Down from a year ago |
Guidance and outlook
- Full year 2026 net interest income is expected to be $50 billion, plus or minus.
- Fourth quarter net interest income is expected to be approximately $13 billion.
- The net interest margin is expected to be stable from the third quarter.
- Full year 2026 noninterest expense is expected to be approximately $55.7 billion.
How management sounded
Positive (+6 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management expressed confidence in their strategy, citing consistent revenue growth, improved returns, and successful investments in technology and talent despite macroeconomic uncertainties. Management sounded more upbeat than on 8% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
Net Interest Income drivers
Asked: John McDonald of Truist Securities asked about the drivers for NII growth in the fourth quarter and the split between markets and non-markets.
Answer: Mike Santomassimo explained that NII growth will be driven by loan and deposit growth, fixed-rate asset repricing, and higher investment security balances, with the NIM expected to remain stable.
Consumer health and resilience
Asked: Scott Siefers of TD Cowen asked about the impact of sustained higher rates on customer health and commercial demand.
Answer: Mike Santomassimo noted that strong employment and wage growth are supporting consumer activity, and commercial clients remain prudent with leverage, showing no signs of broad-based credit deterioration.
AI and deposit inertia
Asked: Scott Siefers of TD Cowen asked if AI agents might reduce deposit inertia by moving cash to higher-yielding alternatives.
Answer: Charlie Scharf stated that high-rate alternatives have existed for a long time and that the idea of AI agents causing mass movement of deposits is overdone, as customers value primary banking relationships.
Capital and buybacks
Asked: Erika Najarian of UBS asked about capital management and buyback priorities in light of recent rating agency comments.
Answer: Management emphasized that they have significant flexibility to manage capital, plan to keep the CET1 ratio between 10% and 10.5%, and will use buybacks as a lever after assessing growth opportunities and risks.
What to watch before the next call
- The impact of potential Basel III capital rule finalization on risk-weighted assets and the CET1 ratio.
- The evolution of credit conditions, specifically monitoring for any signs of deterioration in consumer and commercial portfolios.
- The performance of the markets business and its sensitivity to interest rate movements and client activity levels.
