Oct 23, 2026: SpaceX talks send the towers higher and the carriers lower
The stock traded at $84.55 at 4am, up 7.3%, and reached $88.57 at about 8:20am as the Bloomberg report spread. Its premarket high was $90.40. It opened at $89.81, touched $91.45 early in the session and a low of $88.01, and was $88.60 at 9:47am on 2.6 million shares. American Tower gave back more: it traded as high as $202.00 premarket and was $193.77 at 9:47am.
What pushed it up:
- SpaceX wants towers, and Crown Castle is named. Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is negotiating for at least 80,000 sites, about half of the roughly 158,500 US towers. Crown Castle operates about 40,000, so SpaceX cannot reach that number without a second owner. The deals could be worth billions of dollars, according to premarket coverage, though none has been priced.
- Management did not deny it. Asked about satellite operators on the Oct 21 call, CEO Chris Hillabrant declined to name customers and said "you can assume that we're talking to all parties." He also said SpaceX's mobile ambitions "could provide an additional catalyst in two ways."
- Analysts raised targets. TD Cowen raised its target to $98 from $92 and kept a Buy rating, and Citizens reiterated Market Outperform with a $120 target. BMO kept Outperform but trimmed its target to $91 from $93, Investing.com reported.
- A second SpaceX jump in two weeks. On Oct 9 the stock closed at $79.64, up 15.6% from $68.89, after SpaceX said its purchase of spectrum from Grain Management would "pave the way for Starlink Mobile to become a major mobile carrier in the U.S.," the Motley Fool reported. It then drifted down to $78.65 on Oct 21 before today's jump.
- No broad market lift. S&P 500 futures were slightly lower and the S&P 500 fund SPY was down 0.4% at 9:47am, so the gain is specific to towers.
From the Oct 22 close, at 9:47am:
| Stock or fund | Oct 22 close | Oct 23, 9:47am | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crown Castle (CCI) | $78.83 | $88.60 | +12.4% |
| American Tower (AMT) | $181.57 | $193.77 | +6.7% |
| SBA Communications (SBAC) | $178.39 | $189.23 | +6.1% |
| Real estate fund (VNQ) | $92.65 | $93.16 | +0.6% |
| S&P 500 fund (SPY) | $763.96 | $760.78 | -0.4% |
| Verizon (VZ) | $45.20 | $44.01 | -2.6% |
| T-Mobile (TMUS) | $158.79 | $153.64 | -3.2% |
| AT&T (T) | $22.74 | $21.74 | -4.4% |
The market is reading the report two ways at once. Towers gain a possible tenant, and the carriers lose pricing power. That second reading is the one the tower owners should worry about, because the three carriers made up about 90% of Crown Castle's 2025 site rental revenue, according to Stocktwits. AT&T had already fallen 6.8% on Oct 21 partly on the same worry, as we covered in why AT&T stock fell, and SpaceX itself rose on its own results that day. For more of the day's moves, see today's biggest stock moves.
After the jump, RSI(14) stood at 75, the shares sat 19% above their 50-day average and 8% above their 200-day average, and they were 12% below their 52-week high. Volume was 2.6 million shares in the first 17 minutes, half of the 20-day average of 5.0 million for a full day.
What Crown Castle reported on Oct 21
The third-quarter numbers were solid and unremarkable, which is part of why the SpaceX news moves the stock so much. Site rental revenue was $966 million, down 5% from $1,012 million. AFFO was $530 million, or $1.24 per share, up 8% and 11% from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $673 million, down 6%. Crown Castle raised its 2026 outlook: the AFFO midpoint rose $5 million to $1,980 million, the per-share midpoint $0.01 to $4.60, and the adjusted EBITDA midpoint $25 million to $2,715 million. It credited more ground lease buyouts and cost savings. On the call, the CFO said "we continue to expect 2026 to mark the low point for organic growth," and leverage was 6.5 times net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA. Net debt was $17.6 billion at Sept 30. Services margin was only $15 million, as all three carriers pulled back on pre-construction work. To read how analysts parse a call like this one, see our guide to analyzing an earnings call transcript, and for why a small guidance raise matters less than the trend, why outlooks move stocks.
The bull case
- A new customer class. Three carriers account for most of the revenue. A fourth network, even a partial one, would change that picture. Niknam argues the news undercuts the bear case that satellites make towers obsolete.
- Management is positioned for it. The CEO named SpaceX's ambitions as a catalyst, the company is a pure tower owner after its fiber sale, and it says 2026 is the low point for organic growth.
- The dividend and buybacks are covered. Crown Castle paid $1.0625 per share in the quarter and bought back $1,043 million of stock in nine months, funded from AFFO that grew 8%.
- Analysts are moving up. TD Cowen's $98 target and Citizens' $120 target sit well above the price.
The bear case
- Nothing is signed. Niknam said the talks fall "far short" of signed master lease agreements, and some investors will see them as a negotiating tactic aimed at the national carriers, as Investing.com noted.
- The price already reflects a deal. The stock is at the consensus target of about $89, after a 29% rise from Oct 8 on two SpaceX headlines. A forward P/E near 31 leaves little room if the terms disappoint.
- The tenant has leverage. SpaceX needs about half of all US towers, but it can build or lease from several owners, and it can point to an $8 billion spectrum purchase as proof it is serious. A tenant that large can ask for rents well below the carriers' rates.
- The existing customers may react. The carriers fell 3% to 4% because they see a competitor. If they cut tower spending in response, Crown Castle's core revenue, which already fell 7.2% last quarter, would come under more pressure, and services margin was already only $15 million.
- Leverage is high. Net debt is about 6.5 times adjusted EBITDA, with negative book equity.
What comes next
American Tower reports third-quarter results on Oct 27; analysts expect EPS of $2.84 and revenue of about $2.77 billion. Its call is the first chance to hear a second tower owner say what SpaceX would pay and when. Crown Castle's own fourth-quarter report has not been dated. Between now and then, the signals to watch are any announcement from SpaceX or the carriers, any rating or target changes, and whether the premarket gains hold as volume returns to normal. Compare forward and trailing P/E before treating a 31 multiple as cheap or dear for a tower company. Dombey's published research on special situations is in the research archive. Short interest is low at 2.2% of the float, so a squeeze is not driving this move; see short interest and squeeze risk.