Oct 23, 2026: the first staffing growth since 2022 sends the stock to a 32% two-day gain
Robert Half released results after the close on Oct 22 and held its call at 5pm. The stock, which had closed at $37.68, traded as high as $42.51 at about 4:35pm and was $41.44 near 7:50pm. It changed hands at $41.00 before the bell on light volume. It opened at $42.35, dipped to its low of the day at $41.00 at about 9:45am, then climbed through the morning to $46.22 at about 11:20am. At 11:56am it was $45.71 on 2.3 million shares, already above its 20-day average of 1.8 million for a full day.
What pushed it up:
- Talent solutions grew again. Contract talent revenue was $758.8 million, up 1.0% as adjusted, and permanent placement was $116.9 million, up 5.6%. Together that is 1.6% growth as adjusted, the first year-over-year gain since 2022, according to the release.
- October looked better than September. On the call, management said contract talent grew 2% in the first two weeks of October and permanent placement 5% in the first three weeks. CEO M. Keith Waddell said "hiring activity continues to improve, supported by gradually improving market conditions."
- Profit rose faster than revenue. Gross margin was 39.1% against 37.2% a year earlier, operating income was $74.8 million, and diluted EPS rose 14% to $0.49 from $0.43.
- A guide that implies growth. Fourth-quarter revenue of $1.285 billion to $1.385 billion and EPS of $0.36 to $0.46, with Protiviti expected to return to year-over-year growth.
Other staffing stocks rose with it, though by far less:
| Stock or fund | Oct 22 close | Oct 23, 11:56am | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Half (RHI) | $37.68 | $45.71 | +21.3% |
| Kforce (KFRC) | $53.66 | $57.63 | +7.4% |
| ManpowerGroup (MAN) | $46.60 | $48.20 | +3.4% |
| Korn Ferry (KFY) | $76.35 | $77.42 | +1.4% |
| S&P 500 fund (SPY) | $763.96 | $762.66 | -0.2% |
| Industrials fund (XLI) | $166.73 | $164.84 | -1.1% |
The peer moves say the market read Robert Half's numbers as a signal for the whole group, not just one company. We covered the other side of that trade earlier this month in why ManpowerGroup stock fell, and more of the day's swings are in today's biggest stock moves.
After the jump, RSI(14) stood at 76, the shares sat 18% above their 50-day average and 44% above their 200-day average, and they were 2% below their 52-week high of $46.70.
The numbers
| Line | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change (as adjusted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $1,359.3M | $1,354.5M | -0.2% |
| Contract talent solutions | $758.8M | $746.2M | +1.0% |
| Permanent placement | $116.9M | $110.1M | +5.6% |
| Protiviti | $483.5M | $498.1M | -3.3% |
| Diluted EPS | $0.49 | $0.43 | +14% |
Total revenue was flat because Protiviti shrank while staffing grew. That is why the Protiviti guide matters as much as the staffing data. Management said every major Protiviti solution area beat its forecast and technology consulting set a quarterly revenue record. Fourth-quarter guidance has Protiviti growing 0% to 4% and talent solutions 1% to 5%. For how a change in outlook can move a stock more than the quarter itself, see why outlooks move stocks.
The bull case
- The cycle is turning in the weekly data. Management described the recovery as "not a hockey stick, but it's a steady rise," with enterprise clients recovering first and smaller businesses starting to catch up.
- Margins have room. Third-quarter adjusted operating margin was 5.3%, against 4.5% a year earlier, and management said it is "pretty bullish about margin possibilities," citing gross margin, cost leverage and Protiviti.
- A new source of consulting work. Anti-money laundering remediation projects are expected to last multiple quarters and lean on contractors, which helps margins.
- The yield. At $0.59 a quarter, the dividend yields about 5.2% at $45.71, and the company held $321.3 million of cash at Sept 30.
The risks
- The move is large and fast. The stock is up 32% in two sessions and above most analyst targets. The consensus target is about $39.67, with a range of $33 to $53, all set before this report.
- Volumes are not growing yet. Management said volumes are "still somewhat down, but they are increasingly less down." Higher bill rates are carrying part of the growth.
- The first quarter is seasonally weak. Management said consolidated operating margin is usually 1 to 2 points lower in the first quarter than in the fourth, and the tax rate rises to 36% to 40%.
- AI is a real long-term question. The release lists the adoption of artificial intelligence among its risk factors. Management argued on the call that AI raises demand for skilled people and makes candidate checks more important, but the market will keep testing that.
- Cash returns are thin. Nine-month cash flow before financing was $47.1 million against $179.8 million of dividends, and buybacks fell to $6.8 million from $92.1 million a year earlier.
What comes next
- The November 6 and December 4 jobs reports. Temporary help payrolls are the closest public read on Robert Half's contract business between earnings.
- Analyst target changes. Most published targets sit below the price. Raised targets would confirm that the Street accepts the turn.
- The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 4, 2027. Watch whether Protiviti grew, whether the October trend held through December, and the first-quarter guide. Our guide to preparing for an earnings report covers what tends to move a stock on the day, and how to analyze an earnings call transcript shows how to read the weekly trend comments management gives.