Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.99 | Up from $1.81 |
| Third quarter demand growth | 2% | Strongest since 2022 |
| DOE grant funding year-to-date | $150 million | Not stated |
| Equity issued via ATM program year-to-date | $825 million | Not stated |
Guidance and outlook
- Narrowing 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range to $6.70 to $6.80, expecting to finish near the top end.
- Reaffirming long-term earnings per share growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030.
- Expect to deliver in the top half of the 5% to 7% growth range beginning in 2028.
- Projecting 3% to 4% load growth over the remainder of the 5-year plan.
How management sounded
Positive (+6 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management reaffirmed long-term growth targets, narrowed guidance to the top end, and highlighted strong load growth while successfully navigating regulatory settlements. Management sounded more upbeat than on 8% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
Florida Tariff Delay
Asked: How does the Florida PSC decision to delay the tariff impact the opportunity set?
Answer: Management stated there is no slowdown in Florida operations, noting they are making adjustments to the tariff and plan to refile it while continuing commercial discussions.
Indiana Genco Structure
Asked: Would Duke consider a Genco structure in Indiana to bypass CPCN processes and improve affordability?
Answer: Management noted they are open to the structure if it makes sense but currently feel they can provide service under the existing model while maintaining low rates.
North Carolina Settlement
Asked: How confident is management in the approval of the North Carolina settlement as is?
Answer: Management expressed confidence in the settlement, citing extensive negotiations with stakeholders and a strong track record of constructive regulatory outcomes in the state.
Large Load Pipeline
Asked: What are the gating items to convert the remaining 7.6 gigawatts of the 15.4 gigawatt pipeline into signed contracts?
Answer: Management explained that these are complex negotiations and they are not counting anything until it reaches the ESA level, but they expect to sign the rest by the first half of next year.
What to watch before the next call
- Final commission orders on North Carolina rate cases expected by mid-November.
- Refiling of the Florida large load tariff.
- Execution of remaining large load contracts by the first half of 2027.
- Potential for $5 billion to $10 billion of additional capital to be added to the 5-year plan upon final contract execution.
