Key financial results

  • Xcel Energy reported third quarter 2026 ongoing earnings of $1.52 per share, compared to $1.24 per share in the same period of 2025.Xcel Energy had strong earnings of $1.52 per share for the third quarter of 2026 compared to ongoing earnings of $1.24 per share in 2025.
  • Higher electric revenues increased earnings by $0.32 per share, while higher AADC added $0.11 and other items contributed $0.16 per share.Higher electric revenues increased earnings by $0.32 per share, primarily due to nonfuel riders, regulatory outcomes, sales growth and favorable weather.
  • Earnings were negatively impacted by higher interest expense of $0.13 per share, common equity financing of $0.10 per share, and higher O&M expenses of $0.08 per share.Offsetting these positive drivers, higher interest expense decreased earnings by $0.13 per share and common equity financing decreased earnings by $0.10 per share.
  • Year-to-date weather-adjusted electric sales increased 2.5%, and the company remains on track for a 3% increase for the full year 2026.For 2026, we remain on track for full year weather-adjusted electric sales to increase 3%.

Business segment results

  • Management did not give segment profit figures on the call.
  • The Southwest Public Service (SPS) region is seeing an 8% sales growth CAGR over 5 years, driven by oil and gas activity and data centers.If you look at our earnings release, we see 8% sales growth in SPS over a 5-year CAGR.
  • The Public Service Company of Colorado (PSCO) segment has a 5% rate base CAGR in the current plan.In this most recent update, the rate base CAGR is down to about to 5%.
  • The company is selling its Michigan assets, which represent 0.2% of the overall company rate base, with a closing expected by the end of next year.

Capital allocation

  • The company invested $3.5 billion in the third quarter and $10 billion year-to-date, with a full-year target of over $14 billion.We invested $3.5 billion this quarter, $10 billion year-to-date and are on track for over $14 billion of critical infrastructure investment for our customers this year.
  • A new 5-year capital investment plan of $70 billion was introduced for 2027 through 2031.
  • The financing plan for the 2027-2031 period includes $26 billion of debt and $8 billion of equity, with over 40% of the equity already contracted.Our updated 2027 to 2031 capital plan reflects an additional approximately $26 billion of debt and $8 billion of equity content.
  • The company maintains a dividend growth objective of 4% to 6% and expects the payout ratio to trend toward the 45% to 55% range.We are maintaining our dividend growth objective of 4% to 6%, with the expectation to be at the low end of the range.
  • The U.S. energy sector is seeing record build-outs, with 80 gigawatts of new utility-scale capacity expected this year compared to 53 gigawatts last year.
  • Growth is being driven by residential demand, technology companies building data infrastructure, and the transition to sustainable energy sources.
  • Wildfire mitigation remains a critical industry focus, with the company investing in distribution and transmission systems to reduce future risks.Approximately $4 billion of investments in our distribution and transition systems to improve resiliency and reduce future risk of wildfires.

Competitive landscape

  • Xcel Energy claims to be the number one builder of new transmission line miles since 2008 and the number two builder of renewable and natural gas generation since 2015.Xcel Energy is the #1 builder of new transmission line miles since 2008 and the #2 builder of renewable and natural gas generation since 2015.
  • The company emphasizes its affordability, noting that residential electric and natural gas bills are 29% and 11% below the national average, respectively.Over the past 5 years, our residential electric and natural gas bills have been 29% and 11% below the national average, respectively.
  • The company utilizes strategic partnerships with EPCs and OEMs to differentiate its project execution capabilities.

Macroeconomic environment

  • When adjusted for inflation, typical residential electric and natural gas bills are 14% and 20% lower than they were in 2014.Typical residential Xcel Energy electric and natural gas bill when adjusted for inflation is 14% and 20% lower than it was in 2014.
  • Record-breaking summer temperatures across the service territory increased operational demands on the grid.

Growth opportunities and strategies

  • The company expects to sign energy service agreements for 1 gigawatt of data centers by the end of 2026 and another 3 gigawatts by the end of 2027.
  • Beyond the base $70 billion plan, there is a pipeline of incremental investment opportunities exceeding $10 billion extending into the early 2030s.In addition to our base capital plan, we have a robust pipeline of additional investment opportunities that exceed $10 billion and extends into the early 2030s.
  • The base plan includes 9 gigawatts of renewable generation, 3 gigawatts of natural gas-fired generation, and 2 gigawatts of energy storage.
  • The company is also pursuing 2,400 new high-voltage transmission line miles to support regional delivery needs.

Financial guidance and outlook

  • The 2026 ongoing earnings guidance range is narrowed to $4.10 to $4.16 per share.
  • The company initiated a 2027 earnings guidance range of $4.48 to $4.62 per share.In addition, we're initiating our 2027 earnings guidance range of $4.48 to $4.62 per share.
  • The company expects to deliver, on average, 9-plus percent EPS growth through 2031, and 10-plus percent EPS growth from 2027 to 2030.From '27 to 2030, we expect to deliver, on average, 10-plus percent EPS growth.

Regulatory and policy

  • The company reached constructive decisions or settlements across rate cases representing 90% of its rate base.We reached constructive decisions or settlements across rate cases representing 90% of our rate base.
  • In Minnesota, the company filed a rate stabilization plan to keep customer base rates flat in 2027 and 2028.
  • Management expressed support for federal siting and permitting legislation and wildfire mitigation efforts like the Fix Our Forest Act.We're buoyed by the opportunity to look at the acceleration of siting and permitting at the federal level.

Q3 2026 results

MetricResultChange
Q3 2026 ongoing earnings per share$1.52$1.24 in 2025
Q3 2026 capital investment$3.5 billionNot stated
Year-to-date capital investment$10 billionNot stated
Year-to-date weather-adjusted electric sales growth2.5%Not stated

How management sounded

Balanced (+35 on our -100 to +100 scale). Management expressed confidence in their growth trajectory, citing a robust pipeline of investment opportunities and successful execution of their capital plan. Management sounded more upbeat than on 20% of the 302 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.

Read the analyst Q&A summary and guidance and outlook for this call.

What to watch before the next call

  • Regulatory approval of the large load tariff in Colorado.
  • Progress on signing the additional 1 gigawatt of data center contracts by the end of 2026.
  • Outcome of the 4,100 megawatt renewable and storage RFP in the Upper Midwest.

Earlier calls

  • Q2 2026 (Jul 30, 2026), tone Balanced: Xcel Energy reported Q2 2026 earnings of $0.93 per share and raised its long-term earnings growth outlook to 9+ percent through 2030, supported by a $10+ billion incremental investment pipeline and strong execution on data center demand.