Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock: Why It Jumped 15% After Earnings

Quick answer

Cleveland-Cliffs stock rose 14.6% to $13.89 by 11:10am ET on Oct 19, 2026, after the steelmaker said it expects 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion. Investopedia put the consensus for 2027 at $2.54 billion, so the company's floor sits about 57% above what analysts had modeled. The third quarter helped too: adjusted EPS of $0.28 beat estimates of $0.19 to $0.22, adjusted EBITDA of $612 million beat the company's own $575 million guidance, and net income of $165 million replaced a $134 million loss in the second quarter. Revenue of $5.61 billion was slightly short of the $5.71 billion analysts expected. The company guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to about $715 million, above the $683.6 million analysts expected, Investopedia reported.

Our view: Bullish through February 8, 2027, when fourth-quarter results are expected. The case against is real: $1.1 billion of the 2027 bridge depends on prevailing price forecasts in a steel cycle that Wells Fargo's analyst said may be near its peak, the stock gave back most of its opening gain before recovering, and it now trades above the $12.07 average analyst target. The case for carries more weight into that report. The fourth-quarter guide is above estimates and closer in time than any price forecast, $850 million of the 2027 bridge comes from fixed-price contract resets that the CEO says are based on contracts already signed, and even with the $1.1 billion price item removed the bridge still points to about $3.4 billion, well above the $2.54 billion consensus. We would move off Bullish if U.S. hot-rolled coil prices fall toward the $1,000 per ton level Wells Fargo used as its normal case, if the company cuts the $715 million fourth-quarter guide or walks back the $4 billion figure, or if long-term debt does not fall from $7.65 billion in the fourth quarter as promised. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

Cleveland-Cliffs daily closing price from Sep 8 to Oct 19, 2026, with the Sep 30 low, the Oct 6 Wells Fargo upgrade and the Oct 19 jump marked

Key takeaways

Cleveland-Cliffs rose 14.6% to $13.89 by 11:10am ET on Oct 19 after it said it expects 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion, against a $2.54 billion consensus.
Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.28 against estimates of $0.19 to $0.22, and adjusted EBITDA of $612 million beat the company's own $575 million guidance. Revenue of $5.61 billion missed slightly.
The company guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to about $715 million, above the $683.6 million analysts expected, and swung to $165 million of net income from a $134 million loss in the second quarter.
The stock opened at $14.20, hit $14.58, fell to $12.94 by about 10am, and recovered. Nucor and Steel Dynamics rose about 1%, so most of the move was company news.
Our view is Bullish through February 8, 2027: the near-term guide is above estimates, $850 million of the 2027 bridge rests on fixed-price contracts the company says it has signed, and even without its price forecast the bridge sits well above consensus.

Table of contents

Oct 19, 2026: a 2027 forecast far above the Street
The numbers
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Oct 19, 2026: a 2027 forecast far above the Street

The results came out at 6am ET. Before that the stock traded around $12.30 to $12.56 in premarket trading, against a $12.12 close on Oct 16. It climbed through the morning and stood at $14.16 just after 9:10am. InvestorsHub had it up more than 7% at 8:13am, and Investopedia had it up more than 14% at 8:55am.

It opened at $14.20 and hit $14.58 in the first five minutes, up 20.3%. Sellers then took over. By about 10am it had fallen to $12.94, 11% below the high and only 6.8% above Friday's close. It recovered from there and was $13.89 at 11:10am, on 32.5 million shares.

What pushed it up:

The 2027 forecast. "Based on the new contracts we have already signed with our clients and prevailing index price forecasts, we would expect our 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion," CEO Lourenco Goncalves said in the release.
A beat on its own guidance. Goncalves called the third quarter "our strongest quarter in three years." Average selling price, sales volume and unit costs all improved from the second quarter.
A higher fourth quarter. The company expects about $715 million of adjusted EBITDA, up $103 million from the third quarter, despite seasonal slowing and planned maintenance outages.

The intraday drop suggests some holders sold into the open, and short sellers held 14.0% of the float, which can exaggerate moves in both directions. Our explainer on short interest and squeeze risk covers why.

It was not a sector move. At about 11:09am (the steel ETF last traded at 10:50am):

Stock or fund	Change
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)	+14.6%
Steel Dynamics (STLD)	+1.4%
Nucor (NUE)	+1.3%
ArcelorMittal (MT)	+0.1%
Commercial Metals (CMC)	-0.7%
VanEck Steel ETF (SLX)	+0.3%

After the jump, RSI(14) stood at 65, the shares sat 15% above their 50-day average and 22% above their 200-day average, volume by 11:10am was already 1.8 times its 20-day average of 18.1 million shares, and the stock was 17% below its 52-week high of $16.70. Our page of today's biggest stock moves covers other names moving on the day.

The numbers

	Q3 2025	Q2 2026	Q3 2026
Revenue	$4.73B	$5.23B	$5.61B
Adjusted EBITDA	$143M	$286M	$612M
Net income (loss)	$(234)M	$(134)M	$165M
Adjusted EPS	$(0.45)	$(0.20)	$0.28
Steel shipments (net tons)	4.03M	4.03M	4.15M
Average selling price, per ton	$1,032	$1,124	$1,177

Revenue rose 18.5% from a year earlier, and the selling price rose $53 a ton from the second quarter. Operating cash flow was $224 million against $152 million of capital spending. Automotive volume reached its highest level since the third quarter of 2023, according to the earnings presentation.

The forecast is what moved the stock. Here is how the company's bridge compares with the estimates in place before the report.

Bar chart of 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates: Q3 2026 annualized $2.45 billion, consensus $2.54 billion, Wells Fargo $2.65 billion, company bridge about $4.5 billion

The presentation builds from about $2.45 billion, the third quarter annualized. It adds $350 million from lower discounts and higher extras on index-linked contracts, $850 million from fixed-price contract resets and $1.1 billion from prevailing price forecasts, which it defines as the current futures curve and its Canadian order book. It subtracts $250 million for cost inflation and maintenance, for about $4.5 billion. After about $1.8 billion of interest, capital spending and pension payments, it estimates about $2.7 billion of free cash flow. For why a guide like this can matter more than the quarter itself, see why guidance changes move stocks.

The bull case

Wells Fargo was early and still too low. On Oct 6 analyst Timna Tanners upgraded the stock to Overweight with a $14 target, arguing that 2027 EBITDA could reach $2.65 billion, above Street estimates, even if hot-rolled coil fell to about $1,000 a ton from about $1,250. The company's own figure is far higher.
Imports are down. The presentation shows U.S. flat-rolled steel imports this year running 53% below the 2024 average under the 50% Section 232 tariff. U.S. hot-rolled coil was $1,259 a ton on Oct 15.
Canada turned. Goncalves said Stelco had its strongest quarter since Cliffs bought it and now adds to EBITDA. Canadian hot-rolled coil was $1,226 a ton on Oct 15.
Cheap on sales. The stock trades at 14 times forward earnings and 0.41 times sales, with a market value of about $7.9 billion. Wells Fargo values it at 6 times 2027 EBITDA. Our guide to EV/EBITDA and its blind spots explains that kind of multiple.

The risks

Prices can fall. The $1.1 billion price item rests on today's futures curve. Tanners called her upgrade tactical and said the steel price cycle may be nearing its peak.
Debt is still large. Long-term debt was $7.65 billion at Sep 30, down only $58 million from June 30, and Wells Fargo put net leverage at 15.2 times in the second quarter. The company has no note maturities from 2026 through 2028, which buys time; our explainer on the debt maturity wall covers why that matters.
Asset sales have to close. The company says it has about $500 million of non-core assets under contract or sold, with about $130 million received, and plans to use all net proceeds to pay down debt.
Canada is not fixed. Cliffs indefinitely idled its galvanizing lines at Stelco, citing an oversupplied Canadian market.
The price is ahead of the analysts. The average analyst target is $12.07, below the current price, and the stock gave back two-thirds of its opening gain by about 10am.

What comes next

Analyst revisions this week. Watch how far 2027 estimates move toward $4 billion. Small moves would say the Street does not believe the price forecast.
Hot-rolled coil prices. The $1,259 U.S. price and the futures curve feed the biggest single item in the bridge.
The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 8, 2027. It will show whether EBITDA reached about $715 million and whether the promised debt cut happened. Our guide to preparing for an earnings report covers what to check.
Leverage. The company targets net debt below 2.5 times trailing EBITDA by the end of the second quarter of 2027.

For another metals producer that rose on results this month, see why Alcoa stock rose.

Frequently asked questions

Why did Cleveland-Cliffs stock go up today?

Cleveland-Cliffs rose about 15% on Oct 19, 2026, after its third-quarter report. The biggest driver was the outlook: the company said it expects 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4 billion, far above the $2.54 billion consensus Investopedia cited. It also beat third-quarter profit estimates and guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to about $715 million.

Did Cleveland-Cliffs beat earnings in the third quarter of 2026?

On profit, yes. Adjusted EPS was $0.28, against estimates of $0.19 to $0.22, and GAAP net income was $165 million, or $0.26 a diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA was $612 million, above the company's $575 million guidance. Revenue of $5.61 billion was slightly below the $5.71 billion analysts expected.

How does Cleveland-Cliffs get to $4 billion of EBITDA in 2027?

Its earnings presentation starts from about $2.45 billion, the third quarter annualized. It adds $350 million from lower discounts on index-linked contracts, $850 million from fixed-price contract resets and $1.1 billion from prevailing price forecasts, then subtracts $250 million of cost inflation, for about $4.5 billion.

What did Cleveland-Cliffs guide for the fourth quarter of 2026?

About $715 million of adjusted EBITDA, up from $612 million in the third quarter, as higher prices outweigh seasonality, more maintenance outages, input costs and incentive pay accruals. CEO Lourenco Goncalves said he expects a major debt reduction in the fourth quarter from free cash flow and property sale proceeds.

Is Cleveland-Cliffs still heavily in debt?

Long-term debt was $7.65 billion at Sep 30, 2026, slightly below $7.70 billion at June 30. Wells Fargo put net leverage at 15.2 times EBITDA in the second quarter. The company targets under 2.5 times by mid-2027, has no note maturities from 2026 through 2028, and had $3.2 billion of liquidity.

When does Cleveland-Cliffs report again?

Fourth-quarter results are expected around February 8, 2027, though the company had not confirmed a date as of Oct 19. That report will show whether the $715 million guide held and whether debt fell as promised.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published October 19, 2026 · 6 min read · Event-Driven Investing