Q3 2026 results
| Metric | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.6 billion | up 161% |
| Net Income | $4.4 billion | improvement of $5.5 billion |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $8.8 billion | up 306% |
| Starlink Consumer Subscribers | 13.6 million | added 1.6 million in Q3 |
| SI Segment Revenue | $7.6 billion | up $6.7 billion year-over-year |
Guidance and outlook
- We expect total company revenues in the range of $33 billion to $37 billion for Q1 of 2027.
- We expect fourth quarter capital expenditures to now be in the range of $35 billion to $40 billion for this quarter.
- We remain on track to deliver our previously stated goal of $100 billion in ARR by the end of this year.
How management sounded
Confident (+8 on our -10 to +10 scale). Management expressed high confidence in scaling compute capacity to 13 gigawatts by the end of next year and highlighted rapid growth in Starlink and super intelligence segments. Management sounded more upbeat than on 92% of the 190 calls we cover; most companies sound positive on their own calls, so the comparison says more than the label.
Q&A summary
Chip Fabrication (Terafab)
Asked: Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley asked about orders for EUV machines and the approach to the semi fab supply chain.
Answer: Elon Musk stated the goal is to make a test chip in May or June of next year and reach volume production around Q3 of 2028 at the Grimes Creek location.
Compute Capacity Constraints
Asked: Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan asked about managing power and cooling constraints to reach 13 gigawatts of compute.
Answer: Elon Musk explained that SpaceX uses advanced casting technology developed for rocket engines to build turbine components faster than competitors, allowing for rapid infrastructure deployment.
Potential Merger with Tesla
Asked: Edison Yu from Deutsche Bank asked about the pros and cons of a potential merger with Tesla.
Answer: Elon Musk noted that independent special committees at both companies are discussing the idea, but no agreement has been reached and shareholder approval would be required.
Starlink Mobile Strategy
Asked: Kutgun Maral from Evercore asked about the balance between satellite and terrestrial networks for Starlink Mobile.
Answer: Gwynne Shotwell explained that S-band spectrum will carry the majority of traffic, while low-band spectrum will provide critical penetration, and the company will leverage existing infrastructure for connectivity.
Compute Allocation
Asked: Eric Sheridan from Goldman Sachs asked about the balance between internal and external compute usage.
Answer: Elon Musk stated the goal is to split compute roughly 50-50 between internal use and renting to third parties, though this will remain dynamic based on demand.
What to watch before the next call
- The progress of Starship Flight 15 and the attempt to catch both the booster and the ship.
- The ability to scale power and cooling infrastructure to meet the goal of 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of 2027.
- The outcome of the special committee discussions regarding a potential merger with Tesla.
