Oct 30, 2026: a gap up on the third quarter and a higher guide
CareDx closed at $71.52 on Oct 29 and reported after the close. Premarket trading opened at $83.88 at 4am, eased to a low of $76.62 at 8:35am and was $82.00 by 9:25am. The stock opened at $82.10, dipped to $81.22 in the first minutes and then ran to $90.87 by 9:35am, up 27.1%. It was $87.99 at 11:45am, on 1.8 million shares, already 1.4 times its 20-day average for a full day.
What happened:
- Revenue beat. Total revenue was $139 million against $100 million a year earlier. Testing services revenue rose 65% to $119 million, including $12 million of Specialty Oncology revenue from NavDx, which CareDx gained when it bought Naveris on July 1 for $160 million in cash and up to $100 million more. Patient and Digital Solutions revenue rose 31% to $20 million.
- Profit doubled. GAAP net income was $19 million, or $0.35 a diluted share, against $2 million a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA rose to $30 million, a 22% margin, from $15 million, according to the company's results release.
- The year went up. The revenue guide rose by $30 million at the midpoint and the adjusted EBITDA guide by $23 million.
- The pipeline has dates. CareDx said AlloHeme is on track for a first-quarter 2027 launch and HistoMap Kidney for broader availability in 2027, with both targeting CLIA readiness before year-end. The release also said more than 5,000 transplant patients have registered for its new patient portal, and MarketBeat's call coverage put the growth down to transplant volumes and the added oncology tests.
From the Oct 29 close, at about 11:45am:
| Stock or fund | Oct 29 close | Oct 30, 11:45am | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CareDx (CDNA) | $71.52 | $87.99 | +23.0% |
| Health care fund (XLV) | $184.04 | $185.44 | +0.8% |
| Guardant Health (GH) | $185.31 | $178.68 | -3.6% |
| Veracyte (VCYT) | $52.17 | $50.14 | -3.9% |
| Natera (NTRA) | $436.00 | $415.84 | -4.6% |
The move is all CareDx: the diagnostics peers that sell into the same hospitals fell with the wider market, and the health care fund barely moved. More of the day's swings are in today's biggest stock moves.
After the jump, RSI(14) stood at 82, the shares sat 46% above their 50-day average and 161% above their 200-day average, and the stock was 3.5% below its new 52-week high of $90.87. The low of the past year was $14.23. These are context, not signals.
What the numbers say
The quarter was strong, and it was also helped. Testing services revenue included $15 million from tests performed in earlier periods, against $6 million a year earlier. Strip that out and testing revenue grew about 58%, still fast. Our guide to adjusted EBITDA covers why a one-time collection like this flatters a margin for a single quarter.
The guide is where the bear case starts. Revenue for the first three quarters was about $389 million: $117.7 million in the first quarter, $131.9 million in the second and $139.4 million in the third. A full-year range of $520 million to $530 million leaves $131 million to $141 million for the fourth quarter, so the midpoint is a little below the third quarter that just beat. Part of that is the Lab Products business, sold on June 30, which no longer contributes. But it means the raise mostly adds the third-quarter beat to the year rather than lifting the run rate. Our piece on why outlooks move stocks explains why the shape of a guide can matter more than its size.
At $87.99 the market value is about $4.5 billion, about 9 times trailing sales and 35 times trailing earnings. The consensus price target before today was $75.25, with a range of $46 to $99. Our explainer on the price-to-sales ratio covers when a sales multiple like that is earned.
The bull case
- Growth is real. Revenue rose 39% and testing volume 51%, and even without prior-period collections testing revenue grew about 58%.
- Profit is scaling. Adjusted EBITDA doubled, and the full-year EBITDA guide rose by about 32% at the midpoint.
- New products are close. AlloHeme and HistoMap Kidney both target CLIA readiness before year-end, and NavDx adds a second market in oncology.
- The analysts are on side. BTIG kept its Buy rating on Oct 30, and the stock has beaten revenue estimates in each of the last three quarters by 14% to 16%.
The risks
- The price is ahead of the targets. At $87.99 the stock sits about 17% above the consensus target. Our piece on earnings estimate revisions covers how targets catch up, or how prices drift back to them.
- A flat fourth quarter. The full-year guide implies no revenue growth from the third quarter to the fourth.
- One-time revenue. The $15 million of prior-period revenue may not repeat.
- Cash conversion lags profit. Operating cash flow was $13 million against $30 million of adjusted EBITDA.
- Stretched technicals. An RSI of 82 and a price 46% above the 50-day average leave room for a pullback without any change at the company.
What comes next
CareDx has two milestones before December 31: CLIA readiness for AlloHeme and for HistoMap Kidney. Its next report is expected around February 23, 2027, and the fourth-quarter guide of roughly $136 million at the midpoint is the bar. A 2027 outlook, likely with that report, is what would justify a price above today's targets.