Oct 16, 2026: CoreWeave and the AI miners drag Galaxy to near its low
The stock traded at $18.28 when premarket trading opened at 4am, close to the $18.25 Oct 15 close, and slipped to $17.70 by 9:25am. It opened at $17.75, touched its high of $17.96 in the first five minutes and fell to $17.31 by 9:35am. Buyers took it back to about $17.80 by 10am, and it held there until 10:45am. From 10:50am it slid steadily: $17.00 by 11:50am, $16.86 at 12:05pm, and a low of $16.78 just before 12:50pm, when it was $16.81, down 7.9%, on 2.3 million shares.
What pushed it down:
- Its tenant sold off again. CoreWeave fell 11.1% by 12:50pm, extending a slide that began on Oct 14 when its bonds fell to levels the market reads as financial strain, per 24/7 Wall St. We covered that slide in why CoreWeave stock fell.
- AI stocks broke lower. CoinDesk reported that the Nasdaq was down 1.4% by 12:13pm, near its session low, led by AI names, and cited Goldman Sachs saying AI-related high-yield bond spreads widened 25 basis points this week while other spreads barely moved. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.13%.
- Crypto stocks fell far more than crypto. Bitcoin was about $81,328 at 12:50pm, down 1%. Strategy fell 9.1%, but it had its own news: MSCI approved new index rules for companies that mainly hold digital assets, per 24/7 Wall St. Coinbase, the closest thing to a pure crypto trading business, was down only 3.4%.
- No company filing. SEC EDGAR shows no Galaxy 8-K since Sep 23, when it named a new principal accounting officer, and nothing since Oct 5 at all.
At about 12:50pm:
| Stock, fund or asset | Change |
|---|---|
| Galaxy Digital (GLXY) | -7.9% |
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | -11.1% |
| Cipher Mining (CIFR) | -9.1% |
| Strategy (MSTR) | -9.1% |
| Iren (IREN) | -8.9% |
| Applied Digital (APLD) | -8.9% |
| Hut 8 (HUT) | -8.8% |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | -7.9% |
| CoinShares bitcoin miners ETF (WGMI) | -7.9% |
| Coinbase (COIN) | -3.4% |
| Invesco QQQ (QQQ) | -1.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTC-USD) | -1.0% |
The table is the main evidence. Galaxy fell as much as the miners ETF and less than CoreWeave, so the market is trading it as an AI data center landlord today, not as a crypto bank.
After the drop, RSI(14) stood at 27, the shares sat 26% below their 50-day average and 32% below their 200-day average, volume by 12:50pm was 2.3 million shares against a 20-day average of 5.6 million, and the stock was 63% below its 52-week high of $45.92.
The week before: an upgrade, then a new low
On Oct 13, Citi analyst Peter Christiansen upgraded Galaxy to Buy from Neutral and raised his target to $28 from $26, citing better than expected economics at Helios I and a possible tenant announcement for more Helios capacity within six months. "Now, we think the risk/reward is attractive," he wrote, per EconoTimes. The stock still fell that day, and the same afternoon Galaxy set its third-quarter report for Oct 27.
On Oct 14, the day CoreWeave fell 15.5% on its bond scare, Galaxy fell 9.0% to $17.93. On Oct 15 it hit a 52-week low of $16.39 in the first half hour, then reversed to close at $18.25, up 1.8%, on 12.9 million shares. At 12:50pm on Oct 16 it sat 2.6% above that low.
Helios, in numbers
Helios is the reason CoreWeave's credit matters to Galaxy shareholders. Per the 10-Q and the second-quarter results release:
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Phase I critical IT load, in service | 133 MW |
| Phase II and III load leased to CoreWeave | 393 MW, from Q2 2027 |
| Approved power not yet contracted | 830 MW |
| Lease term | 15 years |
| Q2 2026 data center lease revenue | $18.9 million |
| Expected Phase I lease revenue per quarter | About $80 million |
| Expected project-level adjusted EBITDA margin | Over 90% |
The 10-Q is direct about the concentration: Galaxy expects its AI data center business "will initially be highly dependent on a single customer, CoreWeave." That is the link the market traded today.
To build Phase II, a Galaxy subsidiary sold $3.507 billion of 9.875% senior secured notes due 2031 in July, about $346 million a year of interest at that coupon. Principal payments do not start until at least ten months after the project is finished, per the 8-K. Before that deal, Galaxy had $3.26 billion of notes payable at June 30. Our explainer on the debt maturity wall covers why the timing of repayments matters as much as the total.
The case for the stock
- The first phase is done. All 133 MW of Phase I was in service by the end of June, delivered on schedule, per the results release.
- The rent is contracted. About $80 million a quarter at a project margin above 90% is the kind of income crypto trading cannot provide, and the release says Galaxy's earnings are becoming less dependent on the direction of digital asset prices.
- A cash cushion. Galaxy held $2.46 billion of cash and stablecoins and $2.72 billion of total equity at June 30.
- Analysts are still positive. The consensus target averages $38.20, with a low of $33, more than double the 12:50pm price. Citi's $28 target is newer and lower. The stock trades at 1.80 times book value of $9.36 a share; our guide to the price-to-book ratio explains what that comparison can and cannot tell you.
The risks
- One tenant. If CoreWeave's financing trouble deepens, the Helios income stream that supports Galaxy's own secured notes is exposed to a single counterparty.
- Crypto still drives the losses. Galaxy lost $85.3 million in the second quarter, mainly on lower digital asset prices, and $301.6 million in the first half, per the 10-Q.
- Short sellers are active. Short interest was 17.54% of the float, which can amplify moves in both directions. See what short interest tells you.
- The uncontracted 830 MW. Signing a new tenant is harder when lenders and investors are pulling back from AI infrastructure, and an empty site earns nothing.
What comes next
- Third-quarter results, Oct 27 before the open, call at 8:30am ET. The first quarter with full Phase I rent. Watch data center lease revenue against the $80 million guide, any update on Phase II timing, and spending to date on the Helios build. Our guide to preparing for an earnings report covers what tends to move a stock on the day.
- CoreWeave's credit. Its bond prices and the cost of insuring its debt are the cleanest daily read on the risk to Galaxy's tenant.
- A second Helios tenant. Citi expects an announcement within six months. A name on the 830 MW would cut the dependence on CoreWeave.
- Bitcoin. It barely moved today, but it still drives Galaxy's treasury gains and losses each quarter.