AAON (AAON) Stock: Why It Jumped 22% on a Record Quarter

Quick answer

AAON traded at $76.77 at 11:50am ET on Nov 10, 2026, up 22.1% from a $62.87 close, after it reported record third-quarter net sales of $707.4 million, up 84.1%, against an average estimate of $601.2 million. Diluted earnings were $0.83 a share against an average estimate of $0.57, and the company raised its 2026 sales growth outlook to 72% to 75% from 55% to 60%. The same release restated the first two quarters of 2026 and disclosed a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting. In aggregate the restatement raised first-half sales by $10.7 million and earnings by $0.09 a share rather than cutting them. The stock reached $80.10 at 10:20am.

Our view: Bullish through March 1, 2027, around when AAON is expected to report fourth-quarter results. The case against: the restatement and material weakness mean the accounting for its fastest-growing business, which books revenue by percent of completion, needed correcting twice in one year; total backlog fell 5.9% from June 30 to $1.85 billion, so orders ran below shipments; and the company had $3.7 million of cash and $386.7 million drawn on its revolving credit line at Sep 30. The case for carries more weight. The raised outlook implies fourth-quarter sales of $638 million to $681 million, above the $618.6 million analysts expected before the report, and full-year sales of about $2.48 billion to $2.52 billion against a $2.34 billion consensus. Gross margin rose for a second straight quarter, to 26.7%, and operating cash flow was $146.9 million in nine months against a use of $18.8 million a year earlier. Even after today's jump the stock sits 49% below its 52-week high of $150.46. We would move off Bullish if AAON delays its 10-K or finds further errors, if fourth-quarter orders leave backlog down again from Sep 30, or if gross margin falls back below 25%. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

AAON daily closing price from Sep 25 to Nov 10, 2026, with the Sep 25 high close, the Nov 5 low close and the Nov 10 jump marked

Key takeaways

AAON traded at $76.77 at 11:50am ET on Nov 10, 2026, up 22.1% from a $62.87 close, after third-quarter net sales rose 84.1% to a record $707.4 million against an average estimate of $601.2 million.
Diluted earnings were $0.83 a share against an average estimate of $0.57, and the company raised its 2026 sales growth outlook to 72% to 75% from 55% to 60%.
BASX, the data center cooling brand, grew sales 218.3% to $397.2 million and now makes up more than half of revenue; its backlog was up 51.1% from a year earlier but down 4.6% from June 30.
AAON restated its first- and second-quarter 2026 results after finding errors in percent-of-completion revenue and software subscription accounting, and it disclosed a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting.
Our view is Bullish through March 1, 2027, around its expected fourth-quarter report: the raised outlook implies fourth-quarter sales of $638 million to $681 million, above the $618.6 million analysts expected before the report.

Table of contents

Nov 10, 2026: a record quarter lifts the stock off its lows
The numbers
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Nov 10, 2026: a record quarter lifts the stock off its lows

AAON reported after the close on Nov 9 and held its call at 5pm ET. Premarket trading on Nov 10 started at $72.87 at 4am, reached $76.70 before 5am and drifted to $70.50 at 9:20am. The stock opened at $71.64, dipped to $67.87 in the first five minutes, then climbed to $80.10 at 10:20am. At 11:50am it was $76.77, up 22.1%, on about 2.5 million shares.

What happened:

Sales beat by more than $100 million. Net sales of $707.4 million compared with an average estimate of $601.2 million. AAON-branded sales rose 19.6% to $310.2 million and BASX-branded sales rose 218.3% to $397.2 million.
The outlook went up. 2026 sales growth is now 72% to 75%, from 55% to 60%, and the gross margin outlook is about 26%, from 25% to 26%.
Two quarters were restated. AAON found errors in percent-of-completion revenue and software subscription accounting. First-quarter net income fell $3.4 million to $36.5 million, first-half net income rose $7.1 million to $103.6 million, and the company reported a material weakness.
A dividend. On Nov 10 the board declared its regular quarterly dividend of $0.10 a share, payable Dec 17.

AAON rose while other cooling and HVAC stocks fell. From the Nov 9 close to 11:50am ET:

Stock or fund	Nov 9 close	Nov 10, 11:50am	Change
AAON (AAON)	$62.87	$76.77	+22.1%
Trane (TT)	$420.56	$420.36	0.0%
Johnson Controls (JCI)	$141.49	$140.77	-0.5%
Carrier (CARR)	$53.33	$52.42	-1.7%
Lennox (LII)	$349.47	$342.98	-1.9%
Modine (MOD)	$106.15	$102.96	-3.0%
Vertiv (VRT)	$200.47	$190.45	-5.0%

Around 11:50am RSI(14) stood at 55, the shares sat at their 50-day average and 20.7% below their 200-day average, 49% below their 52-week high of $150.46, and volume was already 1.8 times its 20-day average with more than four hours of trading left.

The numbers

Bar chart of AAON third-quarter net sales by brand: BASX $124.8 million in 2025 and $397.2 million in 2026, AAON brand $259.4 million in 2025 and $310.2 million in 2026

Sales. $707.4 million, up 84.1%. BASX is now 56% of the total.
Margins. Gross margin was 26.7%, down from 27.8% a year earlier but up 60 basis points from the second quarter. SG&A fell to 12.5% of sales from 16.5%.
Profit. Operating income rose 129.3% to $100.0 million and diluted earnings rose to $0.83 from $0.37.
Backlog. $1.85 billion, with BASX at $1.36 billion, up 51.1% from a year earlier, and AAON brand at $499.3 million, up 18.0%. Both fell from June 30.
Balance sheet. $3.7 million of cash and restricted cash and $386.7 million drawn on the revolver at Sep 30. Capital spending was $138.1 million in the first nine months.

A raised outlook usually matters more to the stock than the quarter itself, and this one implies a stronger fourth quarter than analysts had modeled.

The bull case

BASX liquid cooling sales were $165.5 million, up 255.6%, and the company said customer engagement with data center buyers "remains strong" with a "healthy" pipeline. Capacity added in Memphis and elsewhere is now turning into sales: the AAON Coil Products segment's gross margin rose to 25.8% from 11.0% as repriced backlog and higher volume came through. Chief executive Matt Tobolski said the company is "increasingly converting those investments into revenue, earnings and cash flow." Baird kept its Outperform rating on Nov 10, and the average analyst target is $122.67. The selloff from $89.10 on Sep 25 to $54.42 on Nov 5 came as AI infrastructure stocks fell; today's report gave the stock company-specific numbers to trade on. Our page on why Comfort Systems fell covers another data center building contractor from the same selloff.

The risks

Accounting. A material weakness is not fixed by one clean quarter. Auditors will test the remediation in the 10-K, and another restatement would hit trust in the revenue line that drives the stock.
Orders. Backlog fell 5.9% in the quarter. If large BASX awards stay lumpy, the 2027 growth rate depends on wins that have not been announced.
AI spending. Most of the growth comes from data center customers. Vertiv fell 5.0% and Nvidia 6.3% on the same morning, and any pause in AI capital spending would show up in BASX orders.
Margins. The AAON Oklahoma segment's gross margin was 25.5%, down from 33.0%, because of $20.7 million of Memphis overhead.

What comes next

AAON is scheduled to present at Baird's 2026 Global Industrial Conference, will file its 10-K with audited 2026 results after year-end, and is expected to report the fourth quarter around Mar 1, 2027. For the rest of the session's movers, see today's biggest stock moves, and for the AI cloud side of the same spending, our page on CoreWeave.

Frequently asked questions

Why did AAON stock jump today?

AAON rose 22.1% to $76.77 at 11:50am ET on Nov 10, 2026 after reporting record third-quarter net sales of $707.4 million, up 84.1%, and diluted earnings of $0.83 a share, against average estimates of $601.2 million and $0.57. It also raised its 2026 sales growth outlook to 72% to 75% from 55% to 60%.

What is BASX?

BASX is AAON's brand of custom air handling and liquid cooling equipment, sold mostly to data centers. BASX-branded sales grew 218.3% to $397.2 million in the third quarter, and BASX-branded liquid cooling sales were $165.5 million, up 255.6%.

Why did AAON restate its earnings?

On Nov 3, 2026 management and the audit committee concluded that the first- and second-quarter 2026 statements should no longer be relied on, because of errors in revenue under the percent-of-completion method and in accounting for software subscriptions. First-quarter net income fell $3.4 million to $36.5 million, and first-half net income rose $7.1 million to $103.6 million. The company said it found no evidence of fraud or misconduct.

What is AAON's 2026 outlook?

AAON now expects 2026 net sales growth of 72% to 75%, a gross margin of about 26%, SG&A of about 13% of sales and depreciation and amortization of about $100 million. Before the report it expected growth of 55% to 60% and a gross margin of 25% to 26%.

Did AAON's backlog fall?

Total backlog was $1.85 billion at Sep 30, 2026, up 40.5% from a year earlier but down 5.9% from $1.96 billion at June 30. The company said the sequential drop reflected faster conversion of backlog into sales and the timing of large BASX awards, and it expects order strength to continue in the fourth quarter.

When does AAON report next?

AAON has not set a date. It reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on Mar 2, 2026, and analysts' calendars place the next report around Mar 1, 2027.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published November 10, 2026 · 5 min read · Event-Driven Investing