Amdocs (DOX) Stock: Why It Fell 30% on a T-Mobile Dispute

Quick answer

Amdocs closed at $43.66 at 4:00pm ET on Nov 4, 2026, down 30.1% from a $62.43 close, after it warned that a contract dispute with T-Mobile will shrink its sales and profit in fiscal 2027. The company guided revenue down 7% to 11% on a pro forma constant currency basis, or 14.3% to 17.9% as reported, and non-GAAP earnings per share down 26% to 30%, while its fourth-quarter numbers were in line. Barron's called it the stock's worst day in 24 years, and the close was the lowest since early 2014. The shares traded as low as $34.10 after hours on Nov 3, opened at $43.24 and ranged from $41.44 to $46.39 during the session.

Our view: Bearish through February 2, 2027, around when the first-quarter fiscal 2027 report is expected. The case for the stock: the guide already assumes the T-Mobile agreements could end, management says the rest of the business will grow at a mid-single-digit rate, and at the close the shares trade near eight times the earnings the guide implies, with a dividend that yields about 5.2%. The case against: the 30% fall roughly matches the 26% to 30% cut to earnings, so the price has not discounted the open arbitration or the new risk; the first quarter is the weakest of the year, with a revenue guide of $955 million to $995 million against a consensus near $1.20 billion; and borrowing is rising while the buyback slows. We think the case against carries more weight into the next report. The multiple did not fall, the arbitration has no timetable, and analysts are still cutting estimates. We would move off Bearish if the stock closes above $46.39, the Nov 4 high, if Amdocs and T-Mobile announce a settlement that keeps the agreements in place, or if first-quarter revenue tops $995 million. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

Amdocs daily closing price from Sep 22 to Nov 4, 2026, with the Oct 22 close, the Nov 3 close before results and the Nov 4 drop marked

Key takeaways

Amdocs closed at $43.66 at 4:00pm ET on Nov 4, 2026, down 30.1% from a $62.43 close, after it guided fiscal 2027 revenue down 7% to 11% on a pro forma constant currency basis and non-GAAP earnings per share down 26% to 30%, mostly because of a contract dispute with T-Mobile.
Amdocs and T-Mobile have each sent notices claiming the other materially breached their agreements, and both have threatened termination and arbitration. The guide assumes the agreements could end.
Fourth-quarter results were in line: revenue of $1.194 billion rose 3.8% and non-GAAP EPS was $1.98. The first-quarter revenue guide of $955 million to $995 million compares with a consensus near $1.20 billion.
Management says the business outside T-Mobile should grow at a mid-single-digit rate in fiscal 2027, helped by a new eight-year agreement with AT&T, its largest customer.
Our view is Bearish through February 2, 2027: the share price fell about as much as the earnings guide, so the market has not yet priced the open arbitration, a weaker first quarter, higher financing costs and a slower buyback.

Table of contents

Nov 4, 2026: the T-Mobile dispute resets the outlook
The numbers
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Nov 4, 2026: the T-Mobile dispute resets the outlook

Amdocs closed Nov 3 at $62.43, near the top of the range it had held since late September. It reported after the close and held its call at 5:00pm ET. The shares fell as low as $34.10 in after-hours trading and traded between $36.00 and $40.13 before the open, when InvestorsHub reported them down 39.4% at $37.83. The stock opened at $43.24, touched its low of $41.44 in the first five minutes and climbed to $46.39 at 10:45am. It drifted lower through the afternoon and closed at $43.66, down $18.77, on 9.3 million shares. The market value fell to about $4.7 billion.

What moved the stock:

A breach fight with T-Mobile. "Amdocs and T-Mobile have both issued notices to one another, asserting that the other party has materially breached" their agreements, the release said. Both sides threaten termination and monetary or other relief, including in arbitration.
A guide built for the worst case. On the call, Hortig said the outlook uses "conservative assumptions," including "a case of termination of our agreements with T-Mobile by either party." Management would not size T-Mobile revenue: "We cannot get into the details of the specific numbers right now."
Earnings fall faster than sales. Chief financial officer Tal Rozenfeld guided a non-GAAP operating margin of 19.2% to 19.8%, about 210 basis points lower than fiscal 2026, and cited "higher financing costs" from acquisitions.
Downgrades followed. Oppenheimer cut the stock to Market Perform from Outperform, MT Newswires reported, and InvestorsHub said at least three other analysts lowered their forecasts.

The selling was specific to Amdocs. T-Mobile rose 3.1% on the day, Accenture rose 3.9%, Cognizant rose 3.1% and EPAM slipped 0.6%, while the software fund IGV gained 0.9%. After the drop, RSI(14) stood at 18, the shares sat 27.6% below their 50-day average and 29.8% below their 200-day average, volume ran 9.3 times its 20-day average, and the stock was 49.0% below its 52-week high of $85.63. The rest of the session's movers are in today's biggest stock moves.

Bar chart of Amdocs quarterly revenue in millions of dollars: Q4 fiscal 2025 actual $1,150, Q4 fiscal 2026 actual $1,194, Q1 fiscal 2027 consensus $1,200 and Q1 fiscal 2027 guide midpoint $975

The numbers

Measure	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	Change
Revenue	$1,194 million	$1,150 million	+3.8%
Non-GAAP EPS	$1.98	$1.83	+8%
GAAP EPS	$1.35	$0.88	+53%
Non-GAAP operating margin	21.6%	21.6%	flat
Free cash flow	$122 million	$199 million	-39%

For the full fiscal year, revenue rose 3.6% to $4.697 billion and non-GAAP EPS rose 6.0% to $7.41. The 12-month backlog ended at $3.50 billion, down about 9.6% on a pro forma basis, which management tied mainly to its T-Mobile assumptions. The pro forma figures remove about $360 million of fiscal 2026 revenue from hardware resale and a media business Amdocs is selling.

The fiscal 2027 guide calls for free cash flow of $440 million to $500 million. Applied to $7.41, the EPS guide implies roughly $5.19 to $5.48 a share. For the first quarter, Amdocs guided non-GAAP EPS of $1.27 to $1.33, against a consensus of $1.93, StockStory reported. Our guide to guidance changes explains why a cut like this usually matters more than the quarter just reported.

The bull case

The core business is not shrinking. Rozenfeld said "the rest of Amdocs' business is expected to grow mid-single digits in fiscal 2027," and management said the backlog outside T-Mobile grew at a mid-single-digit rate on a pro forma basis. Amdocs also signed an eight-year agreement with AT&T, its largest customer, which Hortig called "a landmark, first-of-its-kind deal," plus agreements for its aOS agentic software with VodafoneThree, VEON and Globe. Our earlier page on AT&T's October drop covers the customer's own pressures.

Because the guide assumes the worst for T-Mobile, any settlement would add to it. Management also set fiscal 2028 expectations of mid-single-digit revenue growth and high-single-digit earnings growth, and the board proposed a 3% dividend increase to $0.586 a quarter. At $43.66 the current $0.569 dividend yields about 5.2%. Our guide to valuing a litigation outcome shows how to weigh a binary dispute like this one.

The risks

The arbitration has no timetable and no disclosed size. Hortig said Amdocs is "prepared to fiercely defend our positions, including in arbitration," and Tal Liani of Bank of America asked on the call whether other large customers could follow; Hortig called the T-Mobile case isolated. Until it is resolved, the stock carries a risk that the guide may not fully capture, such as damages claims.

The balance sheet is also busier. Amdocs ended September with about $947 million of debt, took out $500 million of term loans in October and paid about $340 million in cash for EIS, an insurance software company. Rozenfeld said "we expect a slower pace of buyback activity in fiscal 2027," after $511 million of repurchases in fiscal 2026, which removes a source of demand for the shares. Our page on buybacks as catalysts covers why that matters. Margins should start the year well below the annual range and improve each quarter, so the next report will show the low point. Our explainer on earnings estimate revisions covers how a string of analyst cuts can keep weighing on a stock after the first drop.

What comes next

The first-quarter fiscal 2027 report is expected in early February 2027, around February 2. Before then, watch for any update on the T-Mobile arbitration or a settlement, further analyst cuts, the shareholder vote on the dividend increase at the January 2027 annual meeting, and whether the stock can close above the $46.39 high of Nov 4. A close above that level, or a settlement with T-Mobile, would undercut the Bearish case.

Frequently asked questions

Why did Amdocs stock fall on Nov 4, 2026?

Amdocs fell 30.1% to close at $43.66 after its fiscal fourth-quarter report on the evening of Nov 3. Results were in line, but the company guided fiscal 2027 revenue down 14.3% to 17.9% as reported and non-GAAP EPS down 26% to 30%, citing a legal dispute with T-Mobile, the end of a one-time UScellular integration and lower discretionary spending by T-Mobile.

What is the dispute between Amdocs and T-Mobile?

Each company has sent the other a notice claiming material breach of the agreements under which Amdocs provides software and services to T-Mobile. Both notices threaten termination and monetary or other relief, including in arbitration. Chief executive Shimie Hortig said the dispute concerns a contract signed earlier this year, that the agreement has not been terminated, and that Amdocs continues to support T-Mobile.

What is Amdocs' guidance for fiscal 2027?

Amdocs expects revenue to fall 7% to 11% on a pro forma constant currency basis, non-GAAP EPS to fall 26% to 30%, a non-GAAP operating margin of 19.2% to 19.8% and free cash flow of $440 million to $500 million. For the first quarter it guided revenue of $955 million to $995 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.27 to $1.33.

How much revenue does Amdocs get from T-Mobile?

Amdocs did not say. Management declined to give 2026 or fourth-quarter T-Mobile revenue and said only that its assumption for next year is a major reduction, including a case where either party ends the agreements.

What is Dombey's view on Amdocs stock?

Bearish through February 2, 2027, around when the first-quarter fiscal 2027 report is expected. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

What would change the view on Amdocs?

We would move off Bearish if the stock closes above $46.39, the high of the Nov 4 session, if Amdocs and T-Mobile announce a settlement that keeps the agreements in place, or if first-quarter revenue comes in above the $995 million top of the guide.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published November 4, 2026 · 6 min read · Event-Driven Investing