SoFi (SOFI) Stock: Why It Rose 15% on Its First 2027 Outlook

Quick answer

SoFi Technologies rose 14.9% to $16.62 at 11:55am ET on Oct 27, 2026, from a $14.46 close, after third-quarter results that beat estimates and a first look at 2027 that came in well above them. Adjusted net revenue rose 44% to $1.37 billion, against a consensus of about $1.25 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.18 beat about $0.16. SoFi raised its 2026 revenue forecast to about $5.04 billion and said it expects about $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue and $0.90 of adjusted EPS in 2027, against average estimates of about $5.98 billion and $0.82. Peers rose far less: Affirm was up 4.7%, Robinhood 3.9% and Upstart 3.2%, while the financial sector fund XLF was down 0.2%.

Our view: Bullish through January 29, 2027, around when SoFi is expected to report fourth-quarter results. The three strongest facts for the stock: the 2027 outlook sits about 7% above the revenue consensus and 10% above the EPS consensus, so forecasts have to move up; credit improved, with the all-in personal loan charge-off rate down 80 basis points from a year earlier to about 3.4%; and even after the jump the shares trade at about 18 times the 2027 EPS outlook and are still 49% below their Nov 2025 high. The three strongest against: the stock fell on four of its previous five earnings days, so beats have not held before; the 2026 forecast implies fourth-quarter revenue of about $1.38 billion, roughly flat with the third quarter; and the common equity tier 1 ratio fell to 16.9% from 20.0% a year earlier as risk-weighted assets rose 68%. The first set carries more weight into late January, because a full-year outlook this far above estimates changes the earnings base, not just one quarter, and the average analyst target of $20.77 sits 25% above the price. We would move off Bullish if SoFi announces an equity offering, if the fourth-quarter report trims the 2027 outlook, or if the shares close below $14.46, the Oct 26 close, which would erase the reaction. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

SoFi daily closing price from Sep 14 to Oct 27, 2026, with the third-quarter report marked

Key takeaways

SoFi rose 14.9% to $16.62 at 11:55am ET on Oct 27, 2026, from a $14.46 close, after third-quarter results; it opened at $15.98, dipped to $15.67 in the first minutes and reached $16.65 at about 11:25am.
Adjusted net revenue rose 44% to $1.37 billion against a consensus of about $1.25 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.18 beat about $0.16; members rose 35% to 17.1 million.
SoFi raised its 2026 adjusted net revenue forecast to about $5.04 billion from $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion and gave a first 2027 outlook of $6.4 billion and $0.90 of EPS, against average analyst estimates of about $5.98 billion and $0.82.
The doubts are real: the stock fell on four of its previous five earnings days, the 2026 forecast implies fourth-quarter revenue about flat with the third quarter, and the common equity tier 1 ratio fell to 16.9% from 20.0% a year earlier.
Our view is Bullish through January 29, 2027, around when SoFi is expected to report fourth-quarter results: a 2027 outlook this far above estimates should pull forecasts up, and credit improved in the quarter.

Table of contents

Oct 27, 2026: a premarket jump that held into midday
Why the outlook mattered more than the beat
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Oct 27, 2026: a premarket jump that held into midday

SoFi traded near $14.35 before 7am, then jumped to about $15.35 in the first minutes after 7:00am as the results came out. It reached $16.41 at about 8:30am, during the 8am webcast, and opened at $15.98. It slipped to $15.67 in the first five minutes, the low of the day, then climbed steadily to $16.65 at about 11:25am. At 11:55am it was $16.62.

What the company reported:

Revenue and profit. Adjusted net revenue of $1.37 billion rose 44% from $949.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 70% to $469.8 million, a 34% margin. GAAP net income was $241.0 million, or $0.18 a diluted share, up from $0.11.
Members and products. SoFi added a record 1.2 million members, to 17.1 million, and a record 2.2 million products, to 26.7 million. Products per member rose to about 1.56 from 1.47.
Lending. Originations were a record $16.9 billion, up 71%, including $12.6 billion of personal loans and $2.9 billion of student loans. Lending adjusted net revenue rose 68% to $807.4 million.
Fees. Fee-based revenue reached $570.6 million, 42% of the total, and was up 21% from the second quarter.
Funding. Deposits rose $5.8 billion in the quarter to $51.3 billion, and net interest margin rose 16 basis points to 6.14%.

Measure	2026, July forecast	2026, new forecast	2027 outlook	2027 consensus
Adjusted net revenue	$4.75B to $4.85B	$5.04B	$6.4B	$5.98B
Adjusted EBITDA	$1.6B	$1.66B	$2.24B	n/a
Adjusted EPS	$0.60	$0.61	$0.90	$0.82

Bar chart of SoFi quarterly adjusted net revenue: $0.95 billion in Q3 2025 rising to $1.37 billion in Q3 2026

After the move, RSI(14) stood at 59, the shares sat at their 50-day average and 7% below their 200-day average, and volume of about 95 million shares by midday was already 2.1 times the 20-day average for a full session. More of the day's big moves are in today's biggest stock moves.

Why the outlook mattered more than the beat

SoFi has beaten revenue estimates for several quarters in a row, and the stock still fell 6.4% on Jan 30, 15.4% on Apr 29 and 8.9% on Jul 29. Beats alone were not enough. What changed today is the 2027 number. Management guided to about 27% revenue growth and a net income margin of about 20%, against roughly 17% for 2026. According to MarketBeat's call summary, the CFO said the 2027 plan assumes two rate hikes and a 24% tax rate, and that existing capital and organic earnings can fund it without raising capital. Our page on why guidance changes move stocks covers why a new year's outlook tends to count for more than one quarter.

The bull case

Estimates have to rise. If analysts move toward $0.90 of 2027 EPS from $0.82, the multiple at today's price falls. Our explainer on earnings estimate revisions shows why that process often runs for weeks.
Credit is improving. Loans from late 2022 through 2025 show net cumulative losses of 4.71% with 33% of principal left, against 6.62% at the same point for the 2017 group, the last one that came close to SoFi's 7% to 8% loss tolerance.
Book value is growing. Tangible book value per share rose 25% in a year to $7.48, so the shares trade at about 2.2 times tangible book. Our guide on how to value a bank stock explains why that ratio matters for a lender that holds a bank charter.

The risks

A flat fourth quarter. The $5.04 billion forecast less $3.66 billion for the first nine months leaves about $1.38 billion for the fourth quarter, close to the third quarter's $1.37 billion.
Capital use. Risk-weighted assets rose to $56.2 billion from $33.5 billion a year earlier, and the common equity tier 1 ratio fell to 16.9% from 20.0%. Fast loan growth uses capital, and a raise would cut against the bull case.
Rates and credit. The 2027 plan assumes higher rates. A weaker consumer would show up first in personal loans, which were $30.9 billion of unpaid principal at quarter end.
The technology platform. Segment revenue fell 24% from a year earlier to $87.4 million after a large client left, though SoFi said it grew 18% excluding that client.

What comes next

Analyst estimate changes over the next two weeks. Watch whether the 2027 consensus moves toward $6.4 billion and $0.90. Our guide on how to analyze an earnings call transcript helps separate guidance from tone.
Fourth-quarter results, expected around late January 2027. Watch the 2027 outlook, capital ratios and charge-offs. Earlier fintech moves on our site, such as PagBank's drop, show how quickly lender sentiment can turn.
Rate decisions. The 2027 plan already assumes two hikes; a sharper path would test funding costs and loan values. Our page on tangible book value explains the floor many investors use for lenders.

Frequently asked questions

Why is SoFi stock up today?

SoFi reported third-quarter 2026 results before the open on Oct 27 that beat estimates, raised its 2026 forecast and gave a first 2027 outlook above what analysts expected. The stock rose 14.9% to $16.62 at 11:55am ET.

What did SoFi report for the third quarter of 2026?

Adjusted net revenue rose 44% to $1.37 billion, adjusted EBITDA rose 70% to $469.8 million and GAAP net income was $241.0 million, or $0.18 a diluted share. Members rose 35% to 17.1 million and products rose 44% to 26.7 million. Total loan originations were a record $16.9 billion.

What is SoFi's 2027 guidance?

About $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue, roughly 27% growth, $2.24 billion of adjusted EBITDA, $1.28 billion of adjusted net income and $0.90 of adjusted EPS. Average analyst estimates before the report were about $5.98 billion of revenue and $0.82 of EPS for 2027.

Why has SoFi stock fallen so much in 2026?

The shares peaked at $32.73 on Nov 12, 2025 and fell as low as $13.86 on Oct 15, 2026, even as the company kept beating estimates. The stock fell on its earnings day in January, April and July, by 6.4%, 15.4% and 8.9%. Higher interest rate expectations and the pace of capital use were part of the worry.

How is SoFi's loan credit holding up?

SoFi said that, excluding late stage delinquent loan sales and including recoveries, its annualized personal loan net charge-off rate would have been about 3.4%, down 30 basis points from the second quarter and 80 basis points from a year earlier. The reported personal loan charge-off rate was 2.26%.

When does SoFi report earnings next?

SoFi has not set a date. It reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan 30, 2026, so late January 2027 is the likely window.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published October 27, 2026 · 5 min read · Event-Driven Investing