Boeing (BA) Stock: Why It Fell 10% After Q3 Earnings

Quick answer

Boeing fell 9.6% to $170.16 at 11:48am ET on Oct 27, 2026, from a $188.31 close, after its third-quarter report. The release at 7:30am was mixed and the stock held near $185 for the first hour of trading. It broke when the 10:30am call began: CEO Kelly Ortberg said the 737 line will not reach 47 jets a month until early 2027, Boeing will miss its 2026 target of about 500 737 deliveries, and the company pointed to free cash flow of about $3 billion in 2027 and $6 billion in 2028, against analyst estimates of $5.6 billion and $9.6 billion, Reuters reported. The low was $168.42 at about 11:05am, a new 52-week low. GE Aerospace, which makes 737 engines through its CFM venture, was up 2.5% after its own results, RTX was down 0.2%, the aerospace and defense fund ITA was down 0.4% and the S&P 500 fund SPY was up 0.6%.

Our view: Bearish through January 27, 2027, around when Boeing is expected to report fourth-quarter results. The three strongest facts against the stock: the 2027 cash outlook of about $3 billion is 46% below what analysts had modeled, and 2028 is 38% below, so most estimates and price targets now have to come down, starting from a consensus target of $270.33 set before the call; the 737 rate of 47 a month, first expected this past summer, has slipped to early 2027, and Commercial Airplanes lost $697 million in the quarter at a negative 6.5% margin, worse than its first half; and Boeing still needs $1.4 billion to $3.4 billion of free cash flow in the fourth quarter to hit its 2026 range, more than its best recent quarter of $0.63 billion. The three strongest facts for it: free cash flow of $464 million beat forecasts even after about $700 million of Justice Department settlement payments; the backlog reached a record $745 billion, with more than 6,300 commercial jets; and defense revenue rose 15% with a 6.2% margin and the F/A-XX fighter award. The first set carries more weight into late January, because the backlog and the defense win were known before today, while the cash outlook is new and pushes Boeing's cash recovery out by about a year: the new 2028 figure is close to what analysts had expected for 2027. At $170.16 the stock trades at about 45 times the new 2027 cash figure. We would move off Bearish if Boeing's monthly delivery reports show the 737 line at 47 a month before year end, if fourth-quarter free cash flow lands inside the $1 billion to $3 billion full-year range with room to spare, or if the shares close back above $188.31, the Oct 26 close, which would mean the market has looked through the outlook. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

Boeing daily closing price from Sep 14 to Oct 27, 2026, with the third-quarter report marked

Key takeaways

Boeing fell 9.6% to $170.16 at 11:48am ET on Oct 27, 2026, from a $188.31 close, after third-quarter results; the stock was near $185 until the 10:30am call, then hit $168.42 at about 11:05am, a new 52-week low.
On the call, CEO Kelly Ortberg said the 737 line will not reach 47 jets a month until early 2027, and Boeing said it will miss its 2026 target of about 500 737 deliveries, Reuters reported.
Boeing put 2027 free cash flow at about $3 billion and 2028 at $6 billion, against analyst estimates of $5.6 billion and $9.6 billion, according to Reuters.
The quarter itself was mixed: a core loss of $0.34 a share against an expected $0.21, but free cash flow of $464 million, a record $745 billion backlog and a 15% rise in defense revenue.
Our view is Bearish through January 27, 2027, around when Boeing is expected to report fourth-quarter results: a cash outlook this far below estimates usually takes weeks of target and estimate cuts to absorb.

Table of contents

Oct 27, 2026: flat on the release, down 10% on the call
The numbers behind the move
Why the call mattered more than the release
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Oct 27, 2026: flat on the release, down 10% on the call

Boeing released results at 7:30am. The stock traded as high as $191.00 in the minutes after, then drifted to about $182.50 by 8:40am. It opened at $183.50, touched $187.86 in the first minutes and spent the first hour between about $183.50 and $186.50. At 10:16am it was down about 1.6%. The selling started around the 10:30am start of the call: $178.15 by 10:30am, $174.55 at 10:35am, $171.29 at 10:45am and a low of $168.42 at about 11:05am. Reuters noted the shares reached their lowest level since April 2025. By 11:48am the stock was $170.16, down $18.15, on 21.3 million shares, and the company had lost about $14 billion of market value.

What Boeing reported and said:

Earnings. A core loss of $0.34 a share, against the $0.21 loss analysts expected. The GAAP loss was $0.26 a share, or $116 million, against a $5.34 billion loss a year earlier.
Revenue. Up 4% to $24.19 billion, with defense up 15% and commercial down 3%.
Cash. Operating cash flow of $1.5 billion and free cash flow of $464 million, after about $0.7 billion of Justice Department settlement payments. Nine-month free cash flow was negative $359 million.
The 737. 124 deliveries in the quarter, about 41 a month. Ortberg said the line will take "into early next year" to reach 47, Reuters reported.
The outlook. About $3 billion of free cash flow in 2027 and $6 billion in 2028, against analyst estimates of $5.6 billion and $9.6 billion, according to Reuters.

Bar chart of Boeing free cash flow outlook against analyst estimates: $3 billion against $5.6 billion for 2027, $6 billion against $9.6 billion for 2028

After the drop, RSI(14) stood at 26, the shares sat 14.5% below their 50-day average and 21.9% below their 200-day average, volume was already 2.8 times its 20-day average for a full day, and the stock was 33.0% below its 52-week high of $254.35. More of the day's big moves are in today's biggest stock moves.

The numbers behind the move

Segment	Q3 2026 revenue	Q3 2025 revenue	Q3 2026 margin	Q3 2025 margin
Commercial Airplanes	$10.72B	$11.09B	-6.5%	-48.3%
Defense, Space & Security	$7.94B	$6.90B	6.2%	1.7%
Global Services	$5.57B	$5.37B	18.3%	17.5%
Total	$24.19B	$23.27B	1.5%	-20.5%

The year-ago comparison flatters the quarter, because the third quarter of 2025 carried a large 777X charge. Against this year's own run rate the commercial business went backward: the first-half margin was negative 4.2%. Boeing blamed a less favorable delivery mix, higher projected costs tied to future production rate changes and higher supply chain costs. Total deliveries were 161, one more than a year ago, with 22 787s against 24.

The defense margin also had help. It included a $252 million gain on the sale of HRL Laboratories; without it, the unit earned about 3.0%. Global Services earned about $1.02 billion, more than enough to cover the jetliner loss. Our guide on how to read an earnings release covers how to strip one-time gains like this one from segment margins.

The balance sheet held steady. Cash and marketable securities were $20.7 billion, up from $20.0 billion in June, against $45.9 billion of debt, unchanged, and $10 billion of undrawn credit lines. Net debt was $25.2 billion, down from $25.9 billion in June.

Why the call mattered more than the release

The release did not include a multi-year cash outlook. The call did, and that is where the move came from. Our explainer on why guidance changes move stocks covers the pattern: a forward number well below what the market had priced matters more than a quarter that is roughly in line.

Three points set the 2027 figure apart:

It is a large gap. $3 billion against $5.6 billion is a 46% shortfall, and the 2028 figure trails by $3.6 billion.
It follows a pattern. Ortberg had already said in September that the wings could not be built fast enough, and the 47-a-month rate was first meant for this summer. Each slip moves cash further out.
It changes the math on valuation. At a market value of about $134.5 billion, $3 billion is a free cash flow yield of about 2.2%. Our page on free cash flow yield explains why that ratio carries weight for a company whose story rests on a cash recovery.

The bull case

The cash beat was real. $464 million against forecasts of $238 million, after a $0.7 billion legal payment. Three of the last four quarters were positive.
Demand is not the problem. The backlog rose to a record $745.4 billion from $682.2 billion at the end of 2025, and Boeing booked 300 net commercial orders in the quarter.
The product line is filling in. The FAA certified the 737-7 in the quarter and the 737-10 in October, and the 777X remains on track for first delivery in 2027.
Defense has turned. Revenue up 15%, a positive margin and the Navy's F/A-XX award give Boeing a second leg while the jet business recovers.

The risks

Estimate cuts. Analysts' 2027 earnings estimate of $3.56 a share was set before the cash outlook. Our explainer on earnings estimate revisions covers why the weeks after a guide like this can weigh on a stock.
The fourth quarter. Hitting the 2026 range needs $1.4 billion to $3.4 billion in one quarter, more than double Boeing's best recent quarter.
Supply. Engine deliveries and wing output have slowed both the 737 and the 787, which is stuck at 8 a month.
Customers. Oil prices are up nearly 60% since late June, which strains the airlines that buy Boeing's jets.

What comes next

Monthly orders and deliveries reports in November and December. The 737 count is the cleanest read on whether 47 a month arrives in early 2027 as promised. Our guide on how to build a catalyst calendar shows how to track dates like these.
Fourth-quarter results, expected in late January 2027. Watch fourth-quarter free cash flow against the $1 billion to $3 billion full-year range, and any change to the 2027 figure.
777X certification ahead of first delivery, which Boeing still targets for 2027. A slip there would hit 2027 deliveries and cash again. Our guide on how to analyze an earnings call transcript covers how to read management's timeline language.

Frequently asked questions

Why is Boeing stock down today?

Boeing reported third-quarter results at 7:30am ET on Oct 27 and held its call at 10:30am. On the call it said the 737 line will reach 47 jets a month only in early 2027, that it will miss its 2026 target of about 500 737 deliveries, and that 2027 free cash flow will be about $3 billion, against the $5.6 billion analysts expected. The stock fell 9.6% to $170.16 by 11:48am ET.

Did Boeing beat or miss earnings?

It missed on earnings and beat on cash. The core loss was $0.34 a share, against an expected loss of $0.21. Revenue rose 4% to $24.19 billion, and free cash flow was $464 million, against $238 million a year earlier and above analyst forecasts.

Why did Boeing stock rise first and then fall?

The release looked acceptable: positive free cash flow, a record backlog and a defense margin of 6.2%. The stock traded near $185 to $186 for the first hour. It dropped after the 10:30am call started, when management gave the later 737 timeline and the 2027 and 2028 cash figures.

What is Boeing's free cash flow outlook?

Boeing kept its 2026 free cash flow guidance of $1 billion to $3 billion, which needs roughly $1.4 billion to $3.4 billion in the fourth quarter after negative $359 million over nine months. For 2027 it pointed to about $3 billion and for 2028 to about $6 billion, Reuters reported.

How did Boeing's commercial airplanes unit do?

Commercial Airplanes lost $697 million on $10.72 billion of revenue, a margin of negative 6.5%, worse than its first-half margin of negative 4.2%. Boeing blamed a less favorable delivery mix, higher projected costs tied to future production rate changes and higher supply chain costs.

When does Boeing report earnings next?

Fourth-quarter results are expected in late January 2027. Boeing reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan 27, 2026. Before that, its monthly delivery figures will show whether the 737 line is moving toward 47 a month.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published October 27, 2026 · 7 min read · Event-Driven Investing