Nov 9, 2026: the report, then a steady climb
Fervo closed Nov 6 at $9.03, up 15.9% from $7.79 on Nov 5. Premarket trading on Nov 9 reached $9.36 at 7:05am, minutes after the 7am release, then slipped to $8.50 by 9am. The stock opened at $9.08, set its low of $8.99 in the first five minutes, crossed $10 by 11am and reached $11.43 at 11:50am. At 11:51am it was $11.36, up 25.9%, on about 9.3 million shares, already about a full day's average volume.
What happened:
- Contracts. Binding power purchase agreements reached 1,054 MW and about $11.9 billion, from 658 MW and $7.2 billion at the end of the second quarter. The Google agreement covers 396 MW across eight GeoBlocks, Cape Google 400, over 15 years. Fervo said it has committed to offer Google an option on about 600 MW more, which would be the first project under a framework agreement signed in March 2026 covering up to 3 GW through 2033.
- Schedule. GeoBlock 1 declared commercial operation on Sep 30, ahead of its contractual date. GeoBlock 2 has synchronized with the grid and is in early operations; GeoBlock 3 is mechanically complete and in cold commissioning. Drilling for Cape Google 400 is about 18% complete, and the first 50 MW turbines passed factory acceptance testing.
- Spending. Third-quarter capital spending was $256.7 million. Fervo now expects $700 million to $750 million in the second half, down from $850 million to $900 million, because construction efficiencies moved some Cape Google 400 spending later. Total expected investment did not change.
- Resource. An updated third-party study supports about 8.4 GW of potential capacity at Cape Station, up from 4.3 GW.
The move was Fervo's own. From the Nov 6 close to 11:51am ET:
| Stock or fund | Nov 6 close | Nov 9, 11:51am | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fervo Energy (FRVO) | $9.03 | $11.36 | +25.9% |
| Constellation Energy (CEG) | $249.95 | $271.55 | +8.6% |
| Vistra (VST) | $124.80 | $133.07 | +6.6% |
| Ormat Technologies (ORA) | $91.90 | $94.12 | +2.4% |
| Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) | $43.13 | $43.80 | +1.6% |
| iShares Global Clean Energy (ICLN) | $16.45 | $16.50 | +0.3% |
Power stocks rose with the broad market rebound in AI-linked names, but Ormat, the closest listed geothermal company, rose only 2.4%. After the rise, RSI(14) stood at 54, the shares sat 23% above their 20-day average and 14% below their 50-day average, 73% below their 52-week high of $42.65, and volume was running at 1.0 times its 20-day average with more than four hours of trading left.
The numbers: a backlog that grew faster than the spending
- Revenue was $116,000, up from $55,000 a year earlier, against an estimate of about $136,000. With GeoBlock 1 online only on Sep 30, the fourth quarter will be the first full quarter of Cape Station revenue; Fervo said it will be in line with earlier expectations.
- Loss was $0.07 a share against an estimate of about $0.09. The operating loss was $43.7 million, and the quarter included $15.4 million of interest income, an $11.8 million non-cash gain on interest rate swaps and a $29.9 million tax benefit, so the bottom line flatters the operating picture.
- Balance sheet: $1.92 billion of unrestricted cash and $301.6 million of debt. At today's price that leaves an enterprise value of roughly $1.7 billion, which our explainer on enterprise value shows how to work out.
- Costs: about $7,000 per kW for GeoBlocks 1 to 3, a $5,500 target for Cape Google 400, and a long-term goal of $3,000.
A report that moves guidance on schedule and spending, not just one quarter's numbers, is the kind our piece on why guidance changes move stocks describes. Our guide on how to read an earnings release covers why the tax and swap items should be set aside when judging the loss.
The bull case
Fervo sells clean power that runs around the clock, and it now has a technology company as the anchor customer for its next 400 MW. The Google contract is take-or-pay, so Fervo is paid for available power, not only for what Google uses. The option on another 600 MW gives a path to nearly 1 GW with one buyer. The cash covers the next year of building on the current plan. And the stock had fallen about half from Sep 25 to Nov 5 while the project was coming online on time, much like the busted IPOs that trade on fear before the first results.
The risks
- Curtailment. Before the report, the main worry was a third-party asset being added to the transmission line serving Cape that could limit how much power Fervo delivers in 2027, Earnings Whispers noted. The release left the 2027 revenue outlook unchanged; it did not remove the risk.
- Funding. Fourth-quarter spending of $450 million to $500 million and a multi-year build mean cash will fall. A stock sale after a 26% rise is a common choice for a developer.
- Execution. GeoBlocks 2 and 3 have to hit Jan 1, and Cape Google 400 does not deliver first power until mid-2028.
- Litigation. Law firms including Rosen Law Firm have announced investigations on behalf of shareholders.
What comes next
The next dated test is Jan 1, 2027 for GeoBlocks 2 and 3. After that, fourth-quarter results will show the first full quarter of power sales. The average analyst target is $39.17, far above the price, though targets lag a stock that has fallen this far. Power demand from data centers also drove our coverage of why Oklo rose. For the rest of today's movers, see today's biggest stock moves.