Nov 10, 2026: a swing back to a loss sends the stock to a 52-week low
FutureFuel said on Oct 27 that it would report after the close on Nov 9 and hold its call at 11am ET on Nov 10. The first after-hours trade was $4.89 at 4:20pm, and by 4:55pm the stock had traded as low as $3.60. Premarket trading on Nov 10 opened at $3.81 at 4am and touched $3.33 at 8:40am. The stock opened at $3.58, reached its high of $3.62 in the first five minutes and slid through the morning. The low of $2.77, a new 52-week low, came at 11:35am, during the call. At 1:03pm it was $2.98 on about 4.8 million shares.
What changed:
- A profit turned into a loss. Net loss was $8.4 million against second-quarter net income of $11.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA went from $11.8 million to a loss of $4.9 million.
- Biofuels lost money on higher sales. Biofuel revenue was $87.8 million against $7.1 million a year earlier, but the segment had a gross loss of $9.8 million after elevated feedstock costs and derivative losses.
- Chemicals volume fell. Turnarounds at two customer process units cut segment sales volume 27% and adjusted EBITDA by about $4.3 million. Utilization was 32%, against 55% a year earlier.
- Cash fell by $13 million. Cash was $21.3 million at Sep 30, from $34.3 million at June 30, because of the operating loss, working capital for feedstock and capital spending.
Morning analyst news did not hold the stock up. Gabelli & Co. started coverage with an Add rating and a $9 target before the open. The drop was FutureFuel's alone. From the Nov 9 close to about 1pm ET:
| Stock or fund | Nov 9 close | Nov 10, about 1pm | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FutureFuel (FF) | $5.07 | $2.98 | -41.3% |
| Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) | $52.94 | $52.74 | -0.4% |
| REX American Resources (REX) | $40.47 | $39.60 | -2.1% |
| Darling Ingredients (DAR) | $52.53 | $51.42 | -2.1% |
| Gevo (GEVO) | $1.47 | $1.43 | -3.1% |
| Green Plains (GPRE) | $13.97 | $13.51 | -3.3% |
After the drop, RSI stood at 13, the shares sat 44.4% below their 50-day average and 35.9% below their 200-day average, 57.4% below their 52-week high of $6.99, and volume was already 9.4 times its 20-day average.
The numbers
- Revenue. $104.7 million, up from $22.7 million a year earlier and $78.7 million in the second quarter. Pricing added $45.7 million and volume and mix $36.3 million against last year.
- Profit. Gross loss of $5.4 million, including $8.7 million of net derivative losses. Net loss of $8.4 million, against $9.2 million a year earlier.
- Adjusted EBITDA. A loss of $4.9 million, and a loss of $6.9 million for the first nine months. Hitting the fourth-quarter outlook of about $7 million would leave the full year only just positive.
- Cash flow. Operating cash flow was negative $10.3 million in the quarter, against positive $18.8 million in the second quarter. Capital spending was $3.3 million.
- Balance sheet. Cash of $21.3 million, an undrawn $35 million revolver and stockholders' equity of $144.5 million. The 10-Q also shows a $12.5 million upfront payment from a customer for a plant expansion, held as a refundable deposit.
A swing in adjusted EBITDA matters more for a company this size than revenue growth, and a $13 million quarterly drop in cash puts the focus on cash runway until the tax credit money arrives.
The bull case
The fourth quarter has several items already in hand. FutureFuel says it booked orders for more than 90% of fourth-quarter biodiesel capacity by early November, expects to sell $1.5 million of RINs generated in the third quarter and to recover $2.3 million of derivative losses as it sells the physical inventory. The 10-Q shows $13.8 million of 2026 production tax credits recognized but not yet sold, to be monetized at year-end under a contract signed on June 30. In chemicals, the customer that paused orders to rebalance inventory has committed $41 million of customer-funded investment at Batesville over two years and expects to resume normal ordering in the fourth quarter, and a new European customer is due to start production batches in the first quarter of 2027. Management said it does not expect major planned maintenance at Batesville through the first quarter of 2027.
For biodiesel, the EPA rule finalized on Mar 27, 2026 cuts the renewable diesel RIN equivalence factor to 1.5 from 1.7 from Jan 1, 2027, which narrows an advantage rival renewable diesel producers have had. At $2.98, the stock trades at 0.90 times book value and 0.55 times trailing sales, a level our explainers on price to book and valuing a company below book cover. Insiders own about 41% of the shares, and short interest is a modest 5.5% of the float.
The risks
- Input costs. The company said elevated soybean oil and raw material costs are expected to hurt biofuels gross profit per gallon in the near term. Strong volume did not prevent a gross loss in the third quarter.
- Hedging. Net derivative losses were $8.7 million in the quarter. Results will swing with commodity prices until the hedges and physical sales line up.
- Cash. Cash fell from $51.3 million at the start of the year to $21.3 million. If the tax credits are not sold at year-end, or working capital needs keep rising, the revolver may come into use.
- Dividend and track record. The quarterly dividend is $0.01, down from $0.06 in 2025, and the company lost money in two of the three quarters reported this year. A cheap price to book can still be a value trap if losses keep eating into equity, which fell to $144.5 million from $162.6 million at the start of the year.
What comes next
The stock goes ex-dividend on Dec 4 for its $0.01 fourth-quarter payment. The year-end sale of 2026 tax credits should show up in cash at the fourth-quarter report, expected around mid-March 2027 based on last year's Mar 16 date. That report will show whether the roughly $7 million adjusted EBITDA outlook was met and whether chemicals volumes recovered as the customer resumed orders. Small companies often misprice after events, and this one lost more value in a day than its equity fell all year. For the rest of the session's movers, see today's biggest stock moves.