Groupon (GRPN) Stock: Why It Fell 27% on a Guidance Cut

Quick answer

Groupon traded at $11.94 at 11:50am ET on Nov 10, 2026, down 26.5% from a $16.25 close, after its third-quarter results fell short of its own guidance and it cut its 2026 outlook. Revenue was $125.5 million against guidance of $128 million to $130 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $14.7 million against $19 million to $21 million. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance fell to $60 million to $65 million from $75 million to $80 million, and free cash flow guidance to at least $40 million from at least $60 million. On the 8am call, management said more customer refunds and marketing that did not pay off explained the gap, MarketBeat reported. The stock set a low of $11.61 at 11:05am.

Our view: Bearish through December 8, 2026, when management hosts an investor update in New York. The case for the stock: billings rose 6%, at the top of guidance, with Travel up 36% and Things to Do growing double digits; finance chief Rana Kashyap confirmed that fourth-quarter free cash flow should be at least $85 million; and Groupon has been buying back stock, with another $10.6 million spent in October and early November. The case against carries more weight. Every 2026 profit and cash target moved down, and the 19% cut to the EBITDA midpoint accounts for most of the stock's 26.5% fall, so the drop did not overshoot the change by much. The causes are not one-offs: refunds grew by double digits, chief executive Dusan Senkypl said the effect of the quality push may take "more than one or two quarters" to measure, and Groupon has not yet seen the purchase-frequency gains it expected. Active customers in North America fell 1% and units 2%. The balance sheet leaves little room: about $291 million of convertible notes against $177.4 million of cash after a $45.8 million quarterly cash outflow. We would move off Bearish if the Dec 8 update shows North American units growing again, if Groupon keeps buying back stock at or above October's pace, or if management reaffirms the fourth-quarter cash target with October and November data. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

Groupon daily closing price from Sep 25 to Nov 10, 2026, with the Nov 4 rise, the Nov 9 close and the Nov 10 drop marked

Key takeaways

Groupon traded at $11.94 at 11:50am ET on Nov 10, 2026, down 26.5% from a $16.25 close, after third-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in below its own guidance and it cut its 2026 outlook.
Revenue was $125.5 million against guidance of $128 million to $130 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $14.7 million against guidance of $19 million to $21 million, while billings rose 6%, at the top of the range.
2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance fell to $60 million to $65 million from $75 million to $80 million, revenue guidance to $500 million to $503 million from $513 million to $523 million, and free cash flow guidance to at least $40 million from at least $60 million.
Management said more refunds to customers cut billings growth by 180 basis points and that higher marketing spending did not earn the return it expected.
Our view is Bearish through December 8, 2026, the date of its New York investor update: the cut is the second shortfall against its own targets in a year of restructuring, refunds are still rising, and debt of about $291 million exceeds its $177 million of cash.

Table of contents

Nov 10, 2026: a miss and a cut, and no bounce
The numbers
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Nov 10, 2026: a miss and a cut, and no bounce

Groupon reported after the close on Nov 9, filed its 10-Q the same day and held its call at 8am ET on Nov 10. Premarket trading started at $12.98 at 5:10am, reached $13.51 at 7:25am and slipped to $12.32 by 9:25am. The stock opened at $12.28, touched $14.15 in the first five minutes, then slid to $11.61 at 11:05am. At 11:50am it was $11.94, down 26.5%, on about 2.0 million shares.

What happened:

Below its own range. Revenue of $125.5 million rose 2% but missed guidance of $128 million to $130 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $14.7 million missed $19 million to $21 million and fell from $17.5 million a year earlier.
A lower year. 2026 revenue guidance fell to $500 million to $503 million from $513 million to $523 million, and adjusted EBITDA to $60 million to $65 million from $75 million to $80 million.
Refunds and marketing. Honoring more refund requests cut billings growth by 180 basis points, and higher marketing spending did not earn the expected return, so the fourth quarter will run with tighter spending limits, MarketBeat reported.
Cash. Free cash flow was negative $45.8 million, and cash ended the quarter at $177.4 million.

Groupon fell alone. From the Nov 9 close to 11:50am ET:

Stock or fund	Nov 9 close	Nov 10, 11:50am	Change
eBay (EBAY)	$120.97	$123.36	+2.0%
Yelp (YELP)	$19.58	$19.65	+0.4%
Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)	$121.01	$120.42	-0.5%
Etsy (ETSY)	$88.44	$86.73	-1.9%
Groupon (GRPN)	$16.25	$11.94	-26.5%

Around 11:50am RSI(14) stood at 28, the shares sat 34.0% below their 50-day average and 32.3% below their 200-day average, 60.1% below their 52-week high of $29.90, and volume was already 2.1 times its 20-day average with more than four hours of trading left.

The numbers

Bar chart of Groupon's 2026 guidance in August and November: adjusted EBITDA midpoint $77.5 million and $62.5 million, free cash flow floor $60 million and $40 million

Billings. Up 6% to about $439 million. North America local billings rose 4% and international local billings 11%.
Customers. 16.2 million active customers, roughly flat. Unit sales fell 2% to 9.0 million, and average order value rose 8%.
Profit. Loss from continuing operations of $0.8 million, against $117.8 million a year earlier, and a loss of $0.03 a share.
Costs. The 2026 restructuring plan should save $20 million to $25 million a year, with about 70% of the savings in place on a run-rate basis by October.
Debt. $244.1 million of convertible notes due 2030, convertible at about $54.04 a share, and $47.3 million of notes due 2027, convertible at about $30.00.

The guidance cut is the news here, and it hit adjusted EBITDA, the measure the company had asked investors to judge the turnaround by.

The bull case

Groupon's own forecast says the fourth quarter is its cash quarter: at least $85 million of free cash flow would lift cash to roughly $260 million by year-end, before buybacks. At $11.94 the company is valued at about $485 million. The relaunched LivingSocial now lists more than 50,000 experiences for AI agents to book, and AI resolved more than 90% of customer support contacts by early November, up from 42% in January. Our explainer on buybacks as catalysts covers when repurchases like Groupon's tend to matter for the price.

The risks

Quality costs money. Refunds are paid mostly in Groupon Bucks, and the merchant categories with the most quality problems, such as beauty and automotive services, are core to the local business.
Marketing. Groupon is changing how it measures customer value, from seven-day returns to expected behavior over 12 months, and said it struggled to tune Google and Meta ad systems to that approach.
Debt and cash. The convertible notes exceed cash, and a weaker fourth quarter would leave less room for buybacks. Our page on debt maturity walls explains why a 2027 maturity can weigh on a small company.
Short-term guidance. Groupon gives 2027 guidance only with fourth-quarter results, so the Dec 8 update may offer strategy without numbers.

What comes next

The investor update in New York on Dec 8, 2026 is the next date. For the rest of the session's movers, see today's biggest stock moves, and our explainer on post-earnings drift covers how stocks tend to trade in the weeks after a guidance cut.

Frequently asked questions

Why did Groupon stock drop today?

Groupon fell 26.5% to $11.94 at 11:50am ET on Nov 10, 2026 after third-quarter revenue of $125.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $14.7 million came in below its own guidance of $128 million to $130 million and $19 million to $21 million, and it cut its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $60 million to $65 million from $75 million to $80 million.

Why did Groupon miss its guidance?

On the Nov 10 call, chief executive Dusan Senkypl said investments in trust and quality, including honoring more refund requests, cut reported billings growth by 180 basis points, and that higher marketing spending did not produce the expected return, MarketBeat reported. Supply in North American local categories outside Things to Do also fell short of expectations.

What is Groupon's new 2026 guidance?

For 2026 Groupon now expects billings growth of 3%, revenue of $500 million to $503 million, adjusted EBITDA of $60 million to $65 million and free cash flow of at least $40 million. In August it had guided revenue of $513 million to $523 million, adjusted EBITDA of $75 million to $80 million and free cash flow of at least $60 million.

How much cash and debt does Groupon have?

Groupon had $177.4 million of cash and cash equivalents at Sep 30, 2026. It has $244.1 million of convertible notes due 2030 and $47.3 million of convertible notes due 2027 outstanding. Third-quarter free cash flow was negative $45.8 million, which management called a seasonal pattern.

Is Groupon buying back stock?

Yes. Groupon repurchased 2.8 million shares for $32.2 million in the first nine months of 2026, and another 637,581 shares for $10.6 million from October through the filing of its third-quarter 10-Q, under a $300 million program authorized in 2018.

When is Groupon's investor update?

Groupon's management will host an investor update in New York on Dec 8, 2026, with a live webcast. The company said it will give 2027 guidance with its fourth-quarter results.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published November 10, 2026 · 5 min read · Event-Driven Investing