Sandisk (SNDK) Stock: Why It Fell 12% After a Beat

Quick answer

Sandisk traded at $1,167.92 at 12:06pm ET on Oct 30, 2026, down 12.2% from a $1,330.05 close, the morning after a quarter that beat on every line it reported. Fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 378% from a year earlier to $11.03 billion, non-GAAP gross margin reached 85.1%, and the second-quarter guide came in above estimates. The stock fell anyway, for two reasons: Intel's guide the same night blamed the memory shortage for a collapse in PC demand and dragged the whole chip sector lower, and analysts trimmed targets on the view that memory prices are late in their cycle. The stock opened at $1,215.09, reached $1,239.00 and had traded 13.6 million shares by 12:06pm. At that price Sandisk is worth about $176 billion on its 151 million diluted shares.

Our view: Bullish through January 29, 2027, our checkpoint for fiscal second-quarter results. The case for the stock carries more weight over that window: the company guided second-quarter revenue to $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion and gross margin to 84.5% to 85.5%, so it is telling investors prices are still rising into January; datacenter revenue grew 61% in one quarter to $4.80 billion; it generated about $5.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow and spent $5.0 billion retiring shares; and at the $56 midpoint of the earnings guide the stock trades at about 5.2 times one quarter's earnings run for a year. The case against is real. The stock fell on a beat and raise, which is how memory stocks often trade near a peak, consumer revenue fell 29% in the quarter as buyers resist higher prices, Intel says memory costs are cutting PC demand, and China's CXMT and YMTC are adding supply. We would move off Bullish if Sandisk guides gross margin below 84.5% or revenue below the second-quarter range, if contract prices for enterprise SSDs stop rising in the first quarter of 2027, or if a major cloud customer cuts storage orders. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

Sandisk daily closing price from Sep 14 to Oct 30, 2026, with the six-week high, the Oct 29 report and the Oct 30 drop marked

Key takeaways

Sandisk traded at $1,167.92 at 12:06pm ET on Oct 30, 2026, down 12.2% from a $1,330.05 close, the day after it reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $11.03 billion, up 378% from a year earlier.
The quarter beat and the guide was higher: second-quarter revenue of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion against about $12.31 billion expected, and non-GAAP earnings of $55 to $57 a share against about $53.60.
The stock fell with the chip sector after Intel's guide and blamed the memory crunch for weak PC demand: SOXX was down 8.5%, Micron 5.7%, Western Digital 7.1% and Seagate 7.5%.
Analysts cut targets but kept most ratings: Goldman Sachs and BofA to $2,000, Mizuho to $1,900, Evercore ISI to $2,500, and Wells Fargo to $1,300 at Equal Weight.
Sandisk bought back $5.0 billion of stock in the quarter and will split its shares eight for one, with split-adjusted trading from Nov 20.

Table of contents

Oct 30, 2026: a 12% drop on a record quarter
Why the market sold a beat
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Oct 30, 2026: a 12% drop on a record quarter

Sandisk reported after the close on Oct 29. It was down nearly 10% before the open, Stocktwits reported, and it kept falling during the session. At 12:06pm it was 50% below its 52-week high of $2,354.39, 25% below its 50-day average of $1,558 and 7% below its 200-day average of $1,259. RSI(14) stood at 33.

The selling was not limited to Sandisk. Intel fell about 29% after guiding fourth-quarter revenue below estimates; on its call, chief executive Lip-Bu Tan cited "the unprecedented memory crunch, and the resulting softness in PC demand," Invezz reported. Amazon missed on revenue and earnings and kept its $220 billion 2026 capital spending plan. By 12:06pm the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was down 8.5%, AMD 10.5%, Seagate 7.5%, Western Digital 7.1%, Micron 5.7% and Nvidia 3.8%. Sandisk fell more than its storage peers, which fits a stock that had run further. We cover the Intel side in why Intel stock fell and the leveraged chip fund in why SOXL fell.

What the quarter showed:

Revenue and margin. Revenue was $11.03 billion, up 23% from the prior quarter and above the roughly $10.7 billion consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin was 85.1%, against 29.9% a year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings were $49.51 a share against estimates of about $46.67, and GAAP net income was $8.1 billion.
Datacenter now leads growth. Datacenter revenue rose 61% from the prior quarter to $4.80 billion, about 44% of sales. Edge revenue rose 7% to $5.83 billion. Consumer revenue fell 29% to $397 million.
A higher guide. Second-quarter revenue of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion compares with about $12.31 billion expected, and non-GAAP earnings of $55 to $57 compare with about $53.60, Stocktwits reported, citing FactSet.
Cash returned. Sandisk repurchased about 3.2 million shares for $5.0 billion in the quarter and 6.0 million over two quarters, about 4% of shares outstanding. For why that matters to the per-share math, see buybacks as catalysts.
An 8-for-1 split. Holders of record on Nov 9 get seven more shares for each one, and split-adjusted trading starts Nov 20. A split changes the share count and price, not the value of the company.

Sandisk revenue in fiscal first quarter 2026, fourth quarter 2026, first quarter 2027 and the midpoint of the second-quarter 2027 guide

Why the market sold a beat

Chief executive David Goeckeler said demand for its products is growing and that datacenter growth is outpacing the rest of the business. The market did not dispute the quarter. It disputed how long the pricing lasts. BofA cut its target to $2,000 from $2,500 and lowered the multiple it applies, saying the memory cycle may be approaching a late stage, Invezz reported. Wells Fargo, at Equal Weight, cut its target to $1,300 from $1,550 and said the shares will need to digest a slowing pace of earnings upside. Goldman Sachs cut to $2,000 from $2,200 but kept a Buy, pointing to enterprise SSD wins at hyperscale customers and limited additions to NAND supply. Mizuho cut to $1,900, Evercore ISI to $2,500 and Susquehanna to $2,720. Every target except Wells Fargo's sits above the share price.

That is the pattern of a cyclical stock near peak earnings: the market pays a low multiple for earnings it does not expect to last. We explain why the reaction to an outlook often outweighs the quarter in guidance changes, and why estimate revisions matter more than the target cuts on the day.

The bull case

Pricing is still rising. GuruFocus reported that TrendForce projects fourth-quarter enterprise SSD contract prices up 23% to 28% from the third quarter and overall NAND prices up 15% to 20%. Sandisk estimates datacenters now take 50% of flash bits shipped, up from 30% a year ago, and that NAND industry capacity is still about 30% below its 2022 peak. Micron chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra has said he expects memory to be tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026, with NAND supply constrained in both years, because Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix are putting capital into DRAM and high-bandwidth memory first. If that holds, Sandisk's guide for the second quarter is a floor, not a peak.

The risks

The risks sit at both ends of the market. At the consumer end, higher memory prices are already cutting demand: Sandisk's consumer revenue fell 29% in a quarter, and Intel expects PC chip revenue to fall at a mid-20% rate. On supply, GF Securities has said NAND price gains could slow to low single digits in the fourth quarter, and China's YMTC has claimed technology advances that could add supply. CXMT, China's largest DRAM maker, reported 89.5% gross margin and a 613% jump in revenue, a sign of how much profit is drawing new capacity into memory. And the stock moves fast: it was $1,887.04 on Sep 22.

What comes next

Sandisk has not set a date for fiscal second-quarter results, so we use January 29, 2027 as our checkpoint. Before then, the split takes effect on Nov 20, and first-quarter 2027 contract price negotiations will show whether pricing keeps rising. For how to prepare for the report itself, see what an earnings catalyst is and how to read an earnings release. The rest of today's moves are in the biggest stock moves.

Frequently asked questions

Why did Sandisk stock fall today?

Sandisk beat estimates and raised its outlook after the close on Oct 29, but the stock fell with the chip sector on Oct 30 after Intel's weak guide, and analysts cut price targets on concern that the memory cycle is late. It traded at $1,167.92 at 12:06pm ET, down 12.2%.

Did Sandisk beat earnings?

Yes. Fiscal first-quarter revenue was $11.03 billion against about $10.7 billion expected, and non-GAAP earnings were $49.51 a share against about $46.67. Non-GAAP gross margin was 85.1%.

What is Sandisk's guidance for next quarter?

Sandisk guided fiscal second-quarter revenue to $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion, non-GAAP gross margin of 84.5% to 85.5% and non-GAAP earnings of $55.00 to $57.00 a share on a pre-split basis, with about 151 million diluted shares.

When is the Sandisk stock split?

Holders of record at the close on Nov 9, 2026 receive seven more shares for each share held, issued after the close on Nov 19. Split-adjusted trading is expected to begin at the open on Nov 20, 2026. The split does not change the company's market value.

Which analysts cut Sandisk price targets?

Goldman Sachs cut its target to $2,000 from $2,200 and BofA to $2,000 from $2,500, both with Buy ratings. Mizuho cut to $1,900 from $2,050, Evercore ISI to $2,500 from $2,800, Susquehanna to $2,720 from $2,745, and Wells Fargo to $1,300 from $1,550 with an Equal Weight rating.

When does Sandisk report next?

Sandisk has not announced a date for fiscal second-quarter results. We use January 29, 2027 as our checkpoint until the company confirms a date.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published October 30, 2026 · 6 min read · Event-Driven Investing