Nov 5, 2026: Decipher misses its own forecast and the stock halves
Veracyte closed Nov 4 at $52.52, near the top of its range for the past six weeks. It released results after the close, with a call at 4:30pm. After-hours trading fell as low as $35.80 at 5:25pm. Premarket trading on Nov 5 started near $38.27 and slid to $29.34 by 9:25am. The stock opened at $29.27, made its high of $29.79 in the first minutes, and fell to $22.00 at 9:50am. At 11:51am it was $23.92 on about 8.5 million shares.
What moved it:
- Decipher fell short. Veracyte delivered about 29,900 Decipher Prostate tests, up 12% from a year earlier, but roughly 1,000 below its forecast. Decipher revenue rose 12% to $92.3 million.
- The growth rate was reset. Management now expects Decipher annual volume to grow by 12,000 to 15,000 tests, with the low end a floor for now. Chief financial officer Rebecca Chambers said the preliminary 2027 outlook assumes growth near 12,000 tests.
- 2027 looks slower. The preliminary outlook calls for about 10% volume growth, mid-single-digit revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 22%. Chambers said revenue grows more slowly than volume because 2026 included collections from earlier periods and because newer tests carry lower average prices.
- An analyst stepped back. Leerink Partners lowered the stock to Market Perform from Outperform with a $35 target, MarketBeat reported.
This was company news, not a sector move. Over the same period Natera fell 7.6% and Guardant Health 6.8% as the Nasdaq dropped more than 4%, while Myriad Genetics rose 3.4%. Our coverage of why Myriad Genetics rose on Nov 4 covers another testing company's report this week, and the rest of the session's movers are in today's biggest stock moves.
By 11:51am RSI(14) stood at 24, the shares sat 46% below their 50-day average and 44% below their 200-day average, volume had already reached 7.2 times its 20-day average, and the stock was 60.6% below its 52-week high of $60.91.
The afternoon added a second, market-wide leg. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 5.5% and the S&P 500 down 4.4% as chip and AI stocks sold off after the midterm elections, the story in why the VIX jumped. Veracyte slid with it to $21.91 just after 2:00pm, then recovered into the close to finish at $24.00, down 54.3% on the day, on about 14.9 million shares. Natera closed down 7.0%, Guardant Health down 9.0% and the Health Care Select Sector fund down 2.5%, while Myriad Genetics closed up 4.5%. The close was above the 11:51am price, so the late selling was the market, not new company news.
The numbers
| Measure | Q3 2026 | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $151.8 million | +15% |
| Testing revenue | $146.4 million | +15% |
| Decipher Prostate revenue | $92.3 million | +12% |
| Afirma revenue | $51.5 million | +19% |
| Total test volume | 52,744 | +15% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $41.2 million | 27.2% of revenue |
GAAP gross margin was 71%, and GAAP net income was $31.5 million, or $0.38 a diluted share. Adjusted EPS of $0.51 beat the $0.41 consensus. Veracyte ended September with $370.5 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, and it has authorized a $100 million share repurchase program, MarketBeat reported. Our page on buybacks as catalysts covers when a repurchase matters to a stock.
The 2026 guide now calls for total revenue of $590 million to $593 million, 14% to 15% growth, against $590 million to $596 million before, and an adjusted EBITDA margin above 26%. The revised outlook assumes about 16% Decipher revenue growth for the year. Our guide to guidance changes explains why a reset to next year's growth rate can move a stock far more than the quarter just reported.
The bull case
The core business is still growing and profitable. Total volume rose 15% in the quarter, Afirma beat and had its growth guide raised, and the company made more than $31 million of net income on $151.8 million of revenue. Stapley said Decipher is still adding customers and gaining share, and chief commercial officer John Leite said orders per physician have held fairly steady, which points to slower new-physician adoption rather than lost accounts.
There is more in the pipeline. Veracyte has launched its Prosigna breast cancer test in the U.S. with Medicare coverage for some patients, and it added a urine-based bladder platform through the Convergent acquisition. Management plans to expand its urology team by about 30% next year. Neither breast nor bladder will add much revenue in 2027, but they give the company more than one test to grow. At about 2.6 times this year's revenue net of cash, the market is pricing the company as if growth stops, which is not what the guide says. Our page on analyst downgrades covers why a downgrade after a large drop often marks the late stage of the selling.
The risks
The slowdown has causes Veracyte does not control. A guideline change for low-risk prostate cancer and the shift toward active surveillance without further testing can keep weighing on Decipher well past 2027. The 2027 margin outlook of about 22% also means expenses grow faster than revenue next year as the company adds sales staff. Newer tests carry lower prices for now: management expects Prosigna's near-term average selling price to be roughly equal to the cost of running the test. And analysts who were modeling about 15% growth will cut estimates, which can keep pressure on the shares for weeks. Our page on earnings estimate revisions covers why that matters.
What comes next
The fourth-quarter report is expected on February 24, 2027, with full 2027 guidance. Before then, watch whether the stock holds above the $21.91 low of Nov 5, any Decipher volume commentary at the investor conferences Veracyte plans to attend, and how far analysts cut their targets. Management guided fourth-quarter Decipher volume to be roughly flat with the third quarter's 29,900 tests, so a figure below that would undercut the Bullish case.