Boyd Group (BGSI) Stock: Why It Fell 12% After Q3 Earnings

Quick answer

Boyd Group Services traded at $77.57 at 11:47am ET on Nov 11, 2026, down 12.3% from an $88.50 close, after its third-quarter adjusted earnings per share fell short of estimates for a business that grew sales by more than a quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.68, against about $0.85 expected and $0.83 a year earlier, and sales of $1.013 billion came in just under the $1.02 billion estimate. The collision repair chain grew adjusted EBITDA 34%, but higher finance costs, more depreciation and a share count 30% larger than a year earlier took the per-share figure down 18%. The results came out at 6am and the call followed at 8am. The stock opened at $78.50 and fell to $76.32 at 10am, about $0.90 above its 52-week low of $75.42 from Oct 7.

Our view: Bearish through March 18, 2027, our estimate for fourth-quarter results; Boyd has not set a date and reported the 2025 year on March 18, 2026. The case for the stock is real. Same-store sales rose 2.2% while the industry's repairable claims fell an estimated 1% to 3%, so Boyd is taking share; adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 13.0% from 12.4%; management said same-store sales stayed positive in October; leverage fell to 2.9 times from 3.1 times; and the company bought back about $14 million of stock. At $77.57 the shares are 58% below their February high. The case against carries more weight over the next four months. The miss came on the line the market prices, earnings per share, and it came from costs that do not go away next quarter: finance costs rose 72% to $32.3 million and depreciation and amortization rose about 44%, while the share count is 30% higher. Management kept its 14% margin target but said progress will be more gradual, which points analysts toward lower estimates, and the claim count that drives the whole industry is still shrinking. We would move off Bearish if fourth-quarter same-store sales growth rises above 3%, if the adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 13.5% or more, or if repairable claims volumes turn positive. This is a view on direction over that window, not a recommendation to trade the stock.

Boyd Group daily closing price from Sep 28 to Nov 11, 2026, with the Oct 7 low, the Nov 4 high close and the Nov 11 drop marked

Key takeaways

Boyd Group Services traded at $77.57 at 11:47am ET on Nov 11, 2026, down 12.3% from an $88.50 close, after third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.68 fell short of the $0.85 analysts expected and below $0.83 a year earlier.
Sales rose 28.2% to $1.01 billion, mostly from the Joe Hudson's acquisition, and adjusted EBITDA rose 34% to $132.1 million, but finance costs rose 72% and the weighted share count 30%, so adjusted earnings per share fell 18%.
Same-store sales grew 2.2% while repairable claims across the industry fell an estimated 1% to 3%, and management said same-store sales stayed positive in October.
Management kept its 14% adjusted EBITDA margin target but said progress toward it will be more gradual; the margin was 13.0% in the quarter.
Our view is Bearish through March 18, 2027, our estimate for fourth-quarter results: per-share earnings are moving away from estimates while the industry's claim count shrinks.

Table of contents

Nov 11, 2026: a 12% drop on a per-share miss
The numbers
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Boyd closed Nov 10 at $88.50, near the top of the range it had climbed through since its Oct 7 low, after a run from $78.17 on Oct 5 to a $90.26 close on Nov 4. The release came at 6am. The only premarket trades were at $84.00 to $84.50 around 9:10am. The stock opened at $78.50, already 11.3% lower, set its low of $76.32 at 10am and traded at $77.57 at 11:47am, down 12.3%. The New York line is thin: about 65,000 shares had traded by then, and Boyd's main listing is in Toronto.

What pushed it down:

Earnings per share missed. Adjusted EPS of $0.68 compared with about $0.85 expected, Investing.com reported, and with $0.83 a year earlier. Net earnings were $0.1 million, against $10.8 million a year earlier, after $7.0 million of acquisition and transformation costs.
Costs below EBITDA rose faster than profit. Finance costs were $32.3 million, up from $18.8 million. Depreciation of property, right-of-use assets and intangibles came to about $88.5 million, up from $61.4 million. The weighted average share count rose to 27.8 million from 21.5 million.
The industry is shrinking. Boyd estimates repairable claims volumes fell about 1% to 3% from a year earlier. Chief executive Brian Kaner tied much of the decline to fewer miles driven over the summer, and said total losses, cars written off rather than repaired, have not yet declined.
A slower margin path. Management kept the 14% adjusted EBITDA margin target but said progress toward it would be more gradual.

Bar chart of Boyd Group adjusted EPS: $0.83 in Q3 2025, about $0.85 expected for Q3 2026 and $0.68 reported

Peers fell far less. At 11:47am:

Stock or fund	Change from Nov 10 close
Boyd Group (BGSI)	-12.3%
LKQ (LKQ)	-2.8%
Driven Brands (DRVN)	-2.4%
Copart (CPRT)	-1.4%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)	+0.8%
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	+1.2%

LKQ sells replacement parts to collision shops and Copart auctions written-off cars, so both depend on the same claim counts. Their small declines say the market read the miss as Boyd's own. Our earlier page on why LKQ fell covers the parts side of the same industry, and the rest of the session's movers are in today's biggest stock moves.

After the drop, RSI(14) stood at 38, the shares sat 6% below their 50-day average and 30% below their 200-day average, and the stock was 58% below its 52-week high of $183.10, set on Feb 11.

The numbers

The quarter, which ended Sept. 30, in U.S. dollars:

Measure	Q3 2025	Q3 2026	Change
Sales	$790.2M	$1,012.7M	Up 28.2%
Same-store sales, excluding currency			Up 2.2%
Adjusted EBITDA	$98.4M	$132.1M	Up 34%
Adjusted EBITDA margin	12.4%	13.0%	Up 0.6 points
Finance costs	$18.8M	$32.3M	Up 72%
Adjusted net earnings	$17.8M	$19.0M	Up 6%
Adjusted EPS	$0.83	$0.68	Down 18%
Collision locations	1,014	1,329	Up 31%

Joe Hudson's locations contributed about $170 million of sales in the quarter, and management said that business improved against the prior year as the quarter went on. Adjusted net earnings rose 6%, but per-share earnings fell because there are 30% more shares. Our explainer on dilution and share count changes covers why a larger company can still earn less per share, and what adjusted EBITDA leaves out covers the gap between the 34% and the minus 18%.

The bull case

Boyd is winning share in a shrinking market. Same-store sales grew 2.2% while claims fell, and gross margin rose to 46.7% from 46.3%. Its Project 360 cost program, together with savings from integrating acquired shops, delivered $50 million this year through September and is set to add $15 million more in the fourth quarter, with $35 million still to come between 2027 and 2029. The company plans 34 new start-up locations over the next 12 months, 11 of them in the fourth quarter. Leverage is falling, and the buyback gives the company a way to use cash at a price 58% below the February high. At about 10 times trailing EBITDA on an enterprise value near $4.2 billion, the stock is priced for little growth.

The risks

Estimates may fall further. A miss this size usually brings estimate cuts, and our guide to why estimate revisions move stocks covers why the cuts can matter more than the miss.
Fewer claims. If miles driven stay low and more damaged cars are written off, the pool of repairable claims keeps shrinking. Boyd can gain share for a while, but not forever against a falling total.
Debt costs. Finance costs are now about $32 million a quarter. Our explainer on net debt to EBITDA covers how to read the 2.9 times leverage figure.
Integration. Joe Hudson's still has to reach Boyd's margins, and management named client scores and staffing as the work left to do.

What comes next

Fourth-quarter results, which we expect around March 18, 2027. Watch same-store sales against the 2.2% of the third quarter, the margin against 13.0%, and whether finance costs level off.
Claims data. Any sign that repairable claims stop falling would be the clearest support for the bull case.
Buybacks. The size of repurchases in the fourth quarter will show how much management backs the stock at these prices.

Our guide to reading an earnings release covers how to work through a report like this one, and how to analyze an earnings call transcript covers the call.

Frequently asked questions

Why did Boyd Group stock fall on Nov 11, 2026?

Boyd Group Services traded at $77.57 at 11:47am ET on Nov 11, down 12.3% from an $88.50 close, after it reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.68 against about $0.85 expected and $0.83 a year earlier. Sales of $1.01 billion were also slightly below the $1.02 billion estimate. Higher finance costs, depreciation and a 30% larger share count offset a 34% rise in adjusted EBITDA.

Did Boyd Group miss earnings in the third quarter of 2026?

Yes on per-share earnings. Adjusted EPS was $0.68, against about $0.85 expected, and net earnings were $0.1 million, against $10.8 million a year earlier. Sales of $1.013 billion were close to the $1.02 billion estimate, and adjusted EBITDA of $132.1 million was up 34%.

What are Boyd Group's same-store sales?

Same-store sales, excluding currency effects, rose 2.2% in the third quarter of 2026. Boyd estimates repairable claims volumes across the industry fell about 1% to 3% from a year earlier, so it gained share. It said same-store sales growth stayed positive in October but stopped giving month-to-date figures.

How much debt does Boyd Group have?

Boyd said its pro forma net leverage was 2.9 times at the end of the third quarter, down from 3.1 times at the end of 2025. Finance costs were $32.3 million in the quarter, up from $18.8 million a year earlier, as the company grew to 1,329 collision locations from 1,014, including the Joe Hudson's Collision Center shops.

Is Boyd Group buying back stock?

Yes. Boyd started a normal course issuer bid in September and bought back about $14 million of shares in the third quarter. Management said buybacks are one option alongside acquisitions and new locations, and would not commit to a pace.

When does Boyd Group report next?

Boyd has not set a date for fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. It reported the 2025 full year on March 18, 2026, so we use March 18, 2027 as our checkpoint.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published November 11, 2026 · 6 min read · Event-Driven Investing