Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Why It Fell 6% Again Before Earnings

Quick answer

Nvidia fell for a second day on Nov 10, 2026, and this time the rest of the chip sector did not follow it down. At 1:00pm ET the shares were $167.64, down 6.2% from the Nov 9 close of $178.67, which itself was 4.3% below the Nov 6 close. The cause is the company's own: its board is investigating whether CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign espionage effort, and on Tuesday President Trump said the FBI is looking into it while a new report tied the matter to Nvidia chip sales in China. Over the two sessions Nvidia lost more than $470 billion of market value, Reuters reported, and Microsoft passed it as the world's second most valuable company for the first time since June 2025. Nvidia reports quarterly results on Nov 17.

Our view: Bullish through November 30, 2026, which covers the Nov 17 report and the two weeks after it. The case against the stock: the board's inquiry and an FBI review have no end date, the company has no chairman and no public succession plan for a CEO investors treat as essential, and The Information's report that the relationship helped move at least $7.5 billion of chips to Chinese firms puts export controls back in question, including recent concessions on H200 sales. The case for it: nothing reported so far touches demand from the U.S. customers that drive revenue, the company guided to $108.0 billion for the quarter it reports next week, about 89% above a year earlier, and at about 11.7 times forward earnings the stock is the cheapest it has been since October 2011. We lean Bullish because a 10% fall in two sessions and 30% since the Oct 6 close prices in lasting damage to earnings that no filing, regulator or customer has yet described. We would change the view if third-quarter revenue lands below $105.8 billion, the bottom of the company's range, if Nvidia discloses an export-control violation or a government restriction on its sales, if Huang leaves the CEO role, or if the stock closes below its 52-week low of $164.27 in any later session.

Nvidia daily closing price from Sep 28 to Nov 10, 2026, with the Oct 6 peak, the Nov 5 chip selloff and the CEO probe marked

Key takeaways

Nvidia traded at $167.64 at 1:00pm ET on Nov 10, 2026, down 6.2% from $178.67, after a 4.3% fall on Nov 9. The two sessions cut its market value by more than $470 billion, Reuters reported, and Microsoft passed it in market value for the first time since June 2025.
The cause is company-specific. Nvidia's board opened an investigation on Nov 8 into whether CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign espionage effort after a relationship with a former Megaspeed executive U.S. officials suspect of sharing information with China. On Nov 10 President Trump said the FBI is looking into it, and The Information reported the relationship helped move at least $7.5 billion of Nvidia chips to Chinese firms.
Other chip stocks held up: AMD was up 0.2%, Broadcom 2.5% and TSMC 0.5% at the same time. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell 1.8% and the Nasdaq 100 fund QQQ 1.4% on a hotter-than-expected October inflation report.
Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results on Nov 17. It guided to revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, with a 74.0% gross margin, against $57.0 billion a year earlier. The consensus is about $108.8 billion and $2.47 a share.
Our view is Bullish through November 30, 2026: at about 11.7 times forward earnings, its cheapest since October 2011, the price already discounts more damage than the facts so far show. We would change it if revenue lands below $105.8 billion, if the company discloses an export-control breach or the CEO leaves, or if the stock closes below $164.27 in a later session.

Table of contents

Nov 10, 2026: down 6% as the CEO probe widens
What the numbers say
The bull case
The risks
What comes next

Nov 10, 2026: down 6% as the CEO probe widens

Premarket. Nvidia started the day higher. It traded as high as $183.09 before the open, and was up 1.75% at $181.80 at one point, the Wall Street Journal reported. By 9:25am it had slipped to $173.99.

The session. The stock opened at $173.98, and its high of the day, $174.65, came in the first five minutes. It fell through the morning to $169.68 at 11:00am and a low of $166.24 near 12:40pm, and was $167.64 at 1:00pm. By then 270.5 million shares had traded, about 2.0 times the 20-day average, after 459.1 million on Nov 9. After the drop, the 14-day RSI stood at 24, and the shares sat 23% below their 50-day average, 18% below their 200-day average and 31% below their 52-week high of $243.37.

What pushed it lower. Three things came out between Monday's close and Tuesday midday:

The FBI. President Trump told reporters the FBI is looking into Huang's relationship with Alice Huang, no relation, a former top executive at Singapore-based Megaspeed International whom U.S. officials suspect of sharing information with China's government, Barron's reported. Megaspeed said on LinkedIn that investigations by U.S. authorities and others had found "no evidence of any violations concerning the illicit transfer of chips or any illegal activities."
A China sales report. The Information reported that the relationship helped facilitate shipments of at least $7.5 billion of Nvidia chips, about 240,000 H100, H200 and some A100 units, to Chinese firms through a network built around Shanghai Century Litong, which had preferred cloud partner status with Nvidia from 2023. Reuters said it could not independently verify the report, and Nvidia did not respond to Reuters.
Price target cuts. Citi cut its target to $285 from $315 and Wells Fargo to $300 from $315, both keeping Buy ratings. Bank of America removed Nvidia from its US 1 list of top picks along with Micron and Lam Research, while writing that it "would not equate allegations with proven business damage."

The board's own position has not changed since Nov 8. It said a committee of independent directors with outside counsel will run the inquiry, that it has "no reason to believe" national security or company secrets were compromised, and that it "has confidence in Jensen and his leadership team." Huang apologized to staff for being unfaithful to his wife. Beijing called the spying claims "groundless speculation."

The rest of the sector shows how specific the selling was. At 1:00pm:

Stock or fund	Nov 9 close	Nov 10, 1:00pm	Change
Nvidia (NVDA)	$178.67	$167.64	-6.2%
Micron (MU)	$733.15	$707.39	-3.5%
Intel (INTC)	$59.37	$57.47	-3.2%
Microsoft (MSFT)	$545.18	$531.04	-2.6%
VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)	$487.41	$478.86	-1.8%
Invesco QQQ (QQQ)	$679.35	$669.85	-1.4%
TSMC (TSM)	$388.62	$390.51	+0.5%
AMD (AMD)	$508.58	$509.49	+0.2%
Broadcom (AVGO)	$319.48	$327.32	+2.5%

The wider market had its own problem. The October consumer price index came in hotter than expected and raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase on Dec 9, Barron's reported, after Fed governor Christopher Waller raised the possibility of a half-point increase if inflation ran hot, MarketWatch reported. That explains the 1.4% drop in QQQ, not a 6% drop in Nvidia. On Nov 9 the gap was wider still: Nvidia fell 4.3% while AMD rose 13%, and it trailed the PHLX Semiconductor Index by the most since January 2019, the Journal reported.

The slide started before the probe. Nvidia's highest close was $239.24 on Oct 6, and it had lost 16% by Nov 4. On Nov 5 it fell 9.3% in a chip-wide selloff that took the iShares Semiconductor ETF down 12%, the day midterm results raised the risk of limits on new data centers, as our Micron note covers. From the record close to 1:00pm on Nov 10 the stock was down 29.9%. More of the day's swings are in today's biggest stock moves.

What the numbers say

The quarter Nvidia reports on Nov 17 ended October 25. In August the company guided:

Revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, so about $105.8 billion to $110.2 billion, with no data center compute revenue from China assumed.
Gross margin of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points, against 75.0% in the second quarter.
Non-GAAP operating expenses of about $9.0 billion, against $8.2 billion.

Nvidia quarterly revenue from fiscal Q3 2026 to the fiscal Q3 2027 guide of $108.0 billion

The consensus going in is about $108.8 billion of revenue and $2.47 of earnings a share, against $57.0 billion and $1.30 a year earlier. Nvidia has topped the consensus revenue figure by 3.0% to 4.3% in each of the last four quarters. Second-quarter revenue was $96.2 billion, up 106%, with data center revenue of $89.0 billion, and Hopper shipments to China were less than 1% of data center revenue. Citi expects a "modest" beat, with higher sales partly offset by lower gross margins as memory prices rise, and expects the company to repeat an outlook of about 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028. Our guide on how to read an earnings release covers what to check first on the day.

The price now asks for little of that. At 11.66 times projected earnings for the next 12 months, the Journal reported, Nvidia is at its lowest multiple since October 2011; our explainer on forward and trailing P/E covers why the forward figure leans on estimates that can move. The company also had about $99.0 billion left under its buyback authorization at the end of July, after returning $26.0 billion to shareholders in the second quarter. Our note on buybacks as catalysts covers when repurchases change the share count enough to matter.

The bull case

Demand is not the question. None of the reporting on the probe describes a lost customer or a cut order, and other AI chip suppliers rose on both days.
A large quarter is a week away. The guide calls for revenue near double a year earlier, and the company has beaten consensus by 3% or more four quarters running.
Cheap on its own history. About 11.7 times forward earnings is the lowest since 2011, for a company guiding to 74% gross margins.
The board is backing the CEO. The board has said it has confidence in Huang, prediction markets put the odds of his removal before 2027 at 13% to 14%, and ARK Invest bought 90,443 shares on Nov 9, Barron's reported.
Cash to support the stock. About $99 billion of buyback room remained at the end of July.

The risks

An open-ended inquiry. Neither the board's review nor the FBI's has a timeline, and either could reach a different conclusion from the board's early statement. Our note on how CEO departures move stocks covers what usually follows when a founder's role is in doubt.
Governance. Nvidia has no chairman, three of its ten independent directors had served 25 years or more as of last spring, and the proxy adviser ISS gave its board structure its riskiest rating, the Journal reported.
Export controls. Capstone expects pressure on the administration to tighten rules on chip diversion and said concessions on H200 exports "could be vulnerable to rollback." If the $7.5 billion report holds up, the company could face penalties or new limits on sales through Southeast Asia.
Margins and AI spending. Citi expects higher memory costs to weigh on gross margin. The stock had already lost about $1.3 trillion of value from early October before the probe news, MarketWatch reported, and Reuters cited investor unease over whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will deliver adequate returns.
A sharper move on the day. After two volatile weeks, the options market may price a wider swing than usual for Nov 17; our guide on estimating an earnings move from options covers how to read that.

What comes next

Nvidia reports on Tuesday, Nov 17, with the release at about 1:20pm Pacific time and the call at 2pm Pacific (5pm ET). Watch revenue against $105.8 billion to $110.2 billion and the $108.8 billion consensus, gross margin against 74.0%, the fourth-quarter revenue guide, and whether management repeats its fiscal 2028 outlook. Before then, watch for any statement from the board's committee, any filing on the inquiry, and any change to U.S. rules on chip sales to China or Southeast Asia. The test of the Bullish view is a quarter at or above the guide, an outlook that keeps growth intact, and a CEO who stays in the job.

Frequently asked questions

Why is Nvidia stock down today?

Nvidia fell 6.2% to $167.64 by 1:00pm ET on Nov 10, 2026, after falling 4.3% on Nov 9. The board is investigating whether CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign espionage effort after a relationship with Alice Huang (no relation), a former Megaspeed executive U.S. officials suspect of sharing information with China. On Nov 10 President Trump said the FBI is looking into it, and The Information reported the relationship helped facilitate at least $7.5 billion of chip shipments to Chinese firms. Reuters said it could not verify that report, and Megaspeed has said investigations found no evidence of illegal chip transfers.

Why did Nvidia fall when other chip stocks rose?

The news is about Nvidia's CEO, its board and its China sales, not about demand for AI chips. On Nov 9 Nvidia fell 4.3% while AMD rose 13% and the iShares Semiconductor ETF rose more than 7%, and the Wall Street Journal said Nvidia trailed the PHLX Semiconductor Index by the widest margin since January 2019. On Nov 10 AMD, Broadcom and TSMC were again higher while Nvidia fell about 6%.

When does Nvidia report earnings?

Nvidia reports results for its fiscal third quarter, which ended October 25, 2026, on Tuesday, November 17, 2026. The release comes out at about 1:20pm Pacific time and the conference call starts at 2pm Pacific (5pm ET), the company said.

What is Nvidia's guidance for Q3 fiscal 2027?

Nvidia guided third-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue to $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, which is a range of about $105.8 billion to $110.2 billion, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points, and non-GAAP operating expenses of about $9.0 billion. It assumed no data center compute revenue from China. Revenue a year earlier was $57.0 billion.

Is Nvidia stock cheap now?

By one measure it is the cheapest in 15 years. Nvidia traded at 11.66 times projected earnings over the next 12 months on Nov 10, its lowest level since October 2011, the Wall Street Journal reported. The average analyst price target was about $332, Barron's reported, though Citi cut its target to $285 from $315 and Wells Fargo to $300 from $315 the same day, both keeping Buy ratings.

Could Jensen Huang be removed as Nvidia CEO?

Nothing has been decided. The board said on Nov 8 that it had no reason to believe national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised and that it has confidence in Huang, and a committee of independent directors with outside counsel is running the inquiry. Prediction markets put the odds of his removal before the start of 2027 at 13% to 14%, the Wall Street Journal reported. Nvidia has no chairman and no public succession plan, the Journal also reported.

Sources

Article details

By James Whitfield, Head of Equity Research, Dombey Capital

Published November 10, 2026 · 8 min read · Event-Driven Investing